I spent some time in lockdown going through his interviews
Here are 6 mental models I got from it
THREAD...
LUTKE LEARNING 1 - OPERATE ON CROCKERS LAW
Crocker is a Wikipedia editor who asked people to NEVER apologise about editing his pages.
He just wanted them to focus on making his pages BETTER.
He took 100% responsibility for his mental state. If he was offended, it's his fault.
"Just give me the raw feedback without all the shit sandwich around it." - Tobi
"Feedback is a gift. It clearly is. It’s not meant to hurt. It’s meant to move things forward, to demystify something for you. I want frank feedback from everyone." - Tobi
"If I'm insulted it's because my brain made a decision, to implant in my memory and thoughts the idea of being insulted by that person...
I did that under my own volition. It was my own choice. My brain has assigned the power to the other person" - Tobi referencing Aurelius
LUTKE LEARNING 2 - ALWAYS BE A STUDENT TO FIRST PRINCIPLES
Tobi's most consistent used mental model throughout his interviews is:
Global Maximum > Local Maximum
Local Maximum = Optimising a cog in the machine
Global Maximum = Optimising the machine itself
Tobi's favorite example of FIRST PRINCIPLES is a Truck driver.
His truck was sat still for 8 HOURS on THANKSGIVING waiting for his cargo to be unloaded when he realized...
"Why not take the WHOLE trailer off the back of my ship rather than unloading + reloading each item?"
This Truck driver was called Malcolm McLean
His first principles approach created the SHIPPING CONTAINER
The results?
Global shipping costs went from $6 a tonne to $0.16 a tonne 🤯
The most underrated entrepreneur of the last century AND the godfather of modern global trade.
Tobi seems to try to operate under the assumption that everything he is doing could be WRONG.
"I think the best company (that exists right now) is a 6/10 on the scale to what is a perfect company" - Tobi
His goal is to get near a 6/10 and push towards a 7/10.
Humanity's most consistent fallacy is assuming the present moment has it figured out.
We look back and laugh at our assumptions from 50 years ago.
Whilst simultaneously forgetting that 50 years from now they be will be laughing at us.
LUTKE LESSON 3 - THINK ABOUT THE LONG TERM
The media narrative is often a dichotomy of Shopify vs Amazon.
Few talk about the similarity both CEO's have for LONG TERM thinking.
Both consistently warn shareholders that they will sacrifice short term revenue for long term value.
Tobi states that almost EVERY DECISION your business makes can pivot on JUST one question:
"Are you optimizing for every individual transaction or the LIFETIME transaction?" - Tobi
Are you playing INFINITE games or FINITE games with your customers?
Growth Marketers would tell Shopify to force "Powered By Shopify" branding on their Merchants stores.
Everyone who then visits the stores would then know Shopify builds stores like these.
This is the sort of "Growth Loop" that VC's dream of.
Shopify DIDN'T DO this.
“We want to make other people look good. We want to make merchants look good." - Tobi (2017 AMA)
Lutke calls this "LTV thinking" in his interview with @garyvee
On a long enough timeline, playing positive-sum games with your customers is the ultimate growth hack.
It's hard to find a more positive-sum company.
There are few (legal) highs that compete with the "1st Shopify Sale Moment".
Every 60 SECONDS somebody makes their 1st sale on Shopify 🤯
They are trying to help reverse this graph by reducing the friction of entrepreneurship
LUTKE LEARNING 4 - EMBRACE TRANSFER LEARNING
"Video games are very distilled environments in which you can learn things." - Tobi
He believes that playing certain games can help your brain rehearse thousand of repetitions for situations that are scarce in the real world.
In the business world, you might make a strategic bet every year.
It may take you 10 years to get the experience of strategic 10 bets.
In the poker world, you make a strategic bet every hand.
It takes you less than one evening to get the experience of 10 strategic bets.
"I'm a card-carrying member of the video games are really good club" - Tobi
"Every employee at Shopify can expense Factorio" - Tobi on one of his favorite games
^^^ He sees the mental effects of playing Factorio as a worthwhile business expense for his company
LUTKE LEARNING 5 - DECISION MAKING
"Every single time I got a decision wrong, I realised that the piece of information that was missing was actually in fact totally available to me." - Tobi
“We tend to underestimate how difficult it was to make a decision in hindsight” - Tobi
"If your job is to make decisions, it’s worth treating it like any other subject to get better at." - Tobi
Whenever he makes a decision, he keeps a small log file with one paragraph explaining what information he used to make that decision.
He reviews it every 6 months
Kasparov had a "SYSTEMS MINDSET" for analyzing his chess mistakes, e.g. Pawn to E4 lost the game
Outcome mindset = "Don't do Pawn to E4 again".
Systems mindset = "What was the mental routines that occurred before I made that decision? Don't do them again"
OUTCOME MINDSET prevents you from making that ONE mistake again.
SYSTEMS MINDSET prevents you from using the mental models that caused that mistake.
SYTEMS MINDSET prevents that one mistake AND 100's of other potential mistakes by addressing the root cause.
"Most people die at 25 and aren't buried until they're 75" - Benjamin Franklin
Why?
4 reasons and solutions:
Reason 1 - Milestones
0-25 is a well-designed video game.
You level up each year.
There are regular milestones as you go from infancy to school to entering the workforce.
You constantly feel like you're making progress -- and have reflective milestones.
After 25, it's a terribly designed video game.
Society places you on your own.
If you don't have the agency to design your own 25+ video game, the only milestones life will give you are the funerals of your loved ones -- followed by your own funeral.
How to choose where to live and what locations to visit:
12 non-obvious thoughts:
1. The 3 big decisions: Where you live, what you do, and who you're with.
Location might be the most important one because the other 2 are often downstream of location.
2. Good rule of thumb for locations to avoid: What places has the most amount of sofa people? (People that drain your energy you need to lie down on a sofa to recharge)
The history of technology by Brad Jacobs: From fire and shelter, to the internet and AI.
I wish I was taught this at school...
More than 2 million years ago - Early humans in Africa make the first stone tools from split pebbles
1 million years ago - Humans begin to use fire as a tool
500,000 years ago - Humans build the first shelters
350,000 years ago - Humans begin to hunt with spears
100,000 years ago - Humans begin to trade using beads made of shells
60,000 years ago - Humans begin to use spears for hunting, protection, aggression
1000 BC - Early accountants in Asia create the abacus
635 BC - The Chinese produce the first coins
600 BC - The Romans build the first public sewer system
200 BC - The Chinese invent the compass
AD 725 - Buddhist monk Yi Xing creates the first mechanical clock
900 - The Chinese first use gunpowder in war
1182 - The Chinese invent the magnetic compass
1284 - The Italians invent eyeglasses
1328 - The Europeans invent the sawmill
1440 - Johannes Gutenberg invents the printing press
1530 - Europeans invent the spinning wheel
1609 - Galileo Galilei invents the telescope
1662 - Blaise Pascal invents the public bus
1698 - Thomas Savery invents the basic steam engine
1769 - A French military tractor becomes the first self-propelled road vehicle
1793 - Eli Whitney invents the cotton gin
1795 - Nicholas-Jacques Conté invents the modern pencil
1838 - A British steamship makes the first transatlantic crossing
1839 - Charles Goodyear develops a way to make rubber strong, durable, and elastic
1850 - Isaac Singer introduces the sewing machine
1857 - William Kelly invents the blast furnace
1865 - Giovanni Caselli introduces the first commercial facsimile system
1869 - John Wesley Hyatt invents synthetic plastic
1874 - Remington Company introduces the mechanical typewriter
1876 - Alexander Graham Bell invents the telephone
1877 - Thomas Edison invents the phonograph
1880 - Thomas Edison invents the incandescent light bulb
1882 - America opens the first hydroelectric power plant
1883 - England constructs the first electric railway
1885 - Gottlieb Daimler builds the first four-wheeled automobile using an internal combustion gas engine
1886 - Josephine Cochran invents the first practical dishwasher
1892 - Rudolf Diesel invents the diesel engine
1894 - Nikola Tesla invents radio signal coils
1896 - Gottlieb Daimler builds the first truck
1901 - Henry Booth invents the vacuum cleaner; Thomas Edison invents the alkaline storage battery
1902 - Marie and Pierre Curie discover the existence of the elements radium and polonium
1903 - Willis Carrier introduces the first electric air conditioner
1908 - Henry Ford uses the assembly line to introduce the Model T; Thomas Edison develops a moving picture with sound
1910 - A plane transports commercial freight for the first time
1913 - England manufactures the first stainless steel
1914 - Electric traffic lights are invented in the United States
1920 - James Smathers invents the electric typewriter
1921 - Karel Čapek invents the robot; Western Union introduces the telegram
1923 - Clarence Birdseye invents frozen food
1927 - Erik Rotheim invents the aerosol can; Philo Farnsworth invents the all-electric television
1933 - Eric Fawcett and Reginald Gibson invent polyethylene
1935 - Robert Watson-Watt pioneers the development of radar
1936 - A rail provider transports a truck trailer for the first time
1937 - Frank Whittle invents the jet engine
1938 - Philip Wiles invents the stainless-steel artificial hip
1939 - Sikorsky builds the first viable helicopter; The United States builds the first mass-produced remote-controlled aircraft, or drone
1940 - England uses the first operational computer in WWII
1943 - America begins operating the first nuclear reactor
1945 - Raytheon Corporation introduces the microwave oven
1946 - The first general-purpose, programmable computer (ENIAC) is developed for the U.S. Army
1947 - William Shockley, John Bardeen, and Walter Brattain invent the transistor
1949 - De Havilland Aircraft builds the first commercial jet airliner
1951 - Charles Ginsburg develops the videotape recorder
1952 - America develops the first hydrogen bomb; Swedish scientists Åke Senning and Rune Elmqvist implant the first cardiac pacemaker
1953 - NBC begins broadcasting television programs in color
1955 - IBM introduces the first transistor calculator
1956 - The “Ideal X,” the world’s first commercial container ship, sails; IBM develops the FORTRAN computer programming language
1957 - Russia launches Sputnik 1, the first artificial satellite
1959 - Jack Kilby and Robert Noyce
invent the silicon chip; Xerox introduces the first commercial copier
1962 - NASA launches the first privately built satellite; Nick Holonyak Jr. invents the first visible light LED
1963 - Digital Equipment Corporation introduces the minicomputer; Philips introduces the compact audio cassette
1965 - The first robotic exoskeleton for assisted walking is created; Stephanie Kwolek invents Kevlar
1966 - Marie Van Brittan Brown invents the first video home security system
1968 - Ivan Sutherland implements the first virtual reality system
1969 - The internet is created through the ARPANET network
1971 - Intel introduces the first microprocessor; Texas Instruments introduces the first pocket calculator
1972 - Landstat 1 creates the first comprehensive mapping of Earth
1973 - Xerox develops the first personal computer
1977 - The VHS video recorder is developed
1978 - The first human is born through in vitro fertilization (IVF)
1979 - Nippon launches the first 1G wireless network in Tokyo
1980 - Gerd Binnig and Heinrich Rohrer invent the scanning tunneling microscope (STM)
1981 - The mobile phone is invented
1982 - The compact disc player is developed
1983 - Apple introduces the Graphical User Interface (GUI); Bill Gates introduces Microsoft Windows; GPS technology is made available for civilian use; Charles Hull invents stereolithography
1984 - Carnegie Mellon University develops the first truly autonomous vehicles
1991 - Ann Tsukamoto identifies and isolates stem cells
1992 - Apple introduces the first PDA; Vodafone sends the first SMS text message, “Merry Christmas”
1994 - Jeff Bezos founds the first purely online retail company; Dan Kohn completes the world’s first secure credit card transaction over the internet
1995 - Gary Kremen launches Match. com, the first online dating service
1996 - Email communication is widely adopted; Scientists at the Roslin Institute in Scotland clone “Dolly” the sheep
1997 - AOL makes instant messaging available; Videophones are first used in business settings; IBM supercomputer Deep Blue defeats chess champion Garry Kasparov
1998 - Google is incorporated; MP3 files begin to be transmitted on the internet; Microvision introduces the virtual retina display; IBM introduces the first speech recognition software; The first high-definition television is sold
1999 - The first wearable continuous glucose monitoring system is approved by the FDA; The first human organ, a bladder, is artificially engineered using 3D printing; TiVo introduces time-shifting broadcast recording
2000 - The “ILOVEYOU” virus infects 50 million computers
2001 - Apple launches the iPod; The first artificial heart is implanted in a human; Capsule endoscopy technology is introduced
2002 - The birth control patch is first released in the United States
2003 - The U.S. government establishes the National Cyber Security Division; Skype launches videoconferencing applications
2004 - Mark Zuckerberg and fellow Harvard students launch Facebook
2005 - YouTube launches its video-sharing website; Scientists complete the first comprehensive comparison of the genetic blueprints of humans and chimpanzees
2006 - Amazon Web Services is launched; Twitter is introduced; Nintendo introduces motion sensor–controlled technology; The first commercial drone is permitted by the U.S. FAA; Food is 3D-printed for the first time
2007 - Apple introduces the iPhone; Amazon introduces Kindle
2008 - Blockchain is introduced for bitcoin transactions
2009 - Emmanuelle Charpentier and Jennifer Doudna invent CRISPR; Google launches Waymo
2010 - Apple introduces the iPad; The first ever Uber trip is completed; Palmer Luckey completes his first VR headset prototype
2011 - Apple introduces Siri
2012 - The Higgs boson particle is discovered; Australian surgeons implant the world’s first bionic eye
2013 - The Apple App Store exceeds a million apps; The FDA approves the first retinal implant in the United States
2014 - A robotic lander built by the ESA makes the first soft landing on a comet
2015 - NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft reaches Pluto; PayPal’s Venmo reports 40 million annual users
2016 - The FDA approves the first artificial pancreas; AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol at Go
2017 - SpaceX reuses a Falcon 9 rocket; Ericsson introduces support for the 5G network; Apple launches facial recognition on the iPhone X
2018 - Instagram reaches 1 billion monthly users
2019 - Astronomers release the first photo of a black hole; IBM unveils the first quantum computing system for commercial use; Israeli researchers print a 3D heart using human tissue
2020 - Zoom is downloaded a record 2.13 million times in a single day
2022 - OpenAI releases ChatGPT; The first full-color images from the James Webb Space Telescope are released; A robot performs laparoscopic surgery on a pig without human assistance.
2023 - Google releases Bard.
Thought 1 - I wish I was taught this at school
It connects subjects: Physics, maths, chemistry, biology, business and geography through an interconnected timeline -- with practical implications.
Thought 2 - The current education model defies how we learn
Having random subjects with no interconnection, timeline or narratives -- is awful for learning.
You could scrap 90% of the education system and replace with a detailed breakdown of this full timeline.