These @youyanggu projections are interesting. If his model had to make a modal projection, it would be that the US will plateau somewhere near the recent total of ~1,300 deaths per day as restrictions are relaxed to the point where we get an R of ~1.
covid19-projections.com
covid19-projections.com
But look at the uncertainty! Many unknowns. It's not hard to imagine some parameters where we're down to "just" 300 deaths a day (or fewer) by mid-August! Or have bounced back to 3,000 (or more)!
IMO this reflects a well-designed model that accounts for real-world uncertainty.
IMO this reflects a well-designed model that accounts for real-world uncertainty.
Importantly also, there's less uncertainty in the very near term. That is, it's unlikely there's a huge spike or rapid decline by the end of this month. It's the accumulation over time. Deaths growing at 10% a week vs. shrinking at 10% makes a big difference over a few months.
