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Trends 1972-2017 in N Indian Ocean cyclonic storms (CSs) & Intense Severe Cyclones (ISCs)
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
Fig10. Annual distribution of a CSs & ISCs, b & c shows the ACE & PDI values of CSs & ICSs, respectively, d shows the MSW speed in the BoB during the period 1972–2017
1972-2017 trends in tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal
More weak storms
No significant trend in strong storms (or intensity)
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
But be careful
Climate is highly variable
When you start & stop a trend analysis makes a big difference
The mid-60s-mid-70s were super active in the BOB
So start there, and you get down trends to 2017
Here is BoB TC landfall data 1877-1977 from Mooley 1980
journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.117…
Finally, an even longer term perspective on tropical cyclones of the North Indian Ocean
Panel (a) is pre-satellite, Panel (b) is post-satellite
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
Spot on--> "it is not possible for scientists to give frank advice if they feel that they will be made the scapegoats for difficult policy decisions" Venki Ramakrishnan @royalsociety theguardian.com/world/2020/may…
But at the same time, scientific advisors have a responsibility to know what science advisory roles make sense in different contexts. Rarely is advocacy for a single (or recommended) course of action going to be appropriate "science advice" to governments.
To the degree that science advice is indistinguishable from advocacy for a preferred course of action, the greater degree that scientists invite some degree of accountability for decision making & blur the notion that advisors advise and decision makers decide.
Read 4 tweets
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
Trust in Medical Scientists Has Grown in U.S., but Mainly Among Democrats | Pew Research Center pewresearch.org/science/2020/0…
This is troubling
The deep partisan politicization of science in the US has been around for a while, but mainly confined to some high profile issue areas, and not science in general
But Pew poll suggests in the era of Covid19, partisan views on scientists may be expanding ...
An important part of the dynamics is the perception (and likely the reality) among the public that scientists are also partisan actors in policy debates

So Ds see scientists as “on my side”
And Rs see then as “not on my side”

That is jet fuel on a fire in 2020
Read 8 tweets
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
Another interesting critique of IPCC scenarios finds carbon capture growth rates too high in 1.5/2deg scenarios, but also that CCS remains a huge challenge

Global geologic carbon storage requirements of climate change mitigation scenarios
pubs.rsc.org/en/content/art…
Climate scientist reactions to this paper compiled by @SMC_London are remarkably political:
1-“potential of CCS should not be seen as a reason not to cut carbon emissions now”
2-“it is still not a silver bullet”
3-“radical mitigation though is fundamental”
sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reactio…
These reactions offer a great example of the use of scenarios to demarcate boundaries between what policies scientists view as acceptable & which are not

When scenarios break down (eg, vs real world) these boundaries get challenged & reinforcement occurs

issues.org/opening-up-the…
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