Setting “success” in March/April as protecting NHS capacity at all costs, was “apparently successful”. Strategy was no secret, was literally the slogan, the advertising, and way in charts Govt measured impact - in hospitals.
But has now been 50% more excess deaths in social care
But has now been 50% more excess deaths in social care
Ministers now say that now is not the time to assess problems with the strategy, even as UK clearly has one of worst records for excess deaths - but surely they want answers to the following issues BEFORE any second wave... to correct any errors... Inquiry wd take 2 years...
Firstly...
Why is the peak in care home deaths (April 17th) 9 days after the peak in hospital deaths (April 8th)? Would suggest, on average that the infection reached care homes after hospitals...
ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=…
Why is the peak in care home deaths (April 17th) 9 days after the peak in hospital deaths (April 8th)? Would suggest, on average that the infection reached care homes after hospitals...
ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=…
More on that - peak in Covid hospital admissions builds up at end of March to peak in first days of April - subsequent fall from 8 April directly attributed to lockdown impact...
BUT peak in care home outbreaks 6-20 April - so lockdown didnt stop spread TO or IN care homes...
BUT peak in care home outbreaks 6-20 April - so lockdown didnt stop spread TO or IN care homes...
So second question:
Did the 19 March guidance on “Hospital Discharge Requirements” which sought to free up 15,000 beds by 27 March by “fully funding” care homes to take them (which helped protect NHS) inadvertently seed problem in care homes across country?
Did the 19 March guidance on “Hospital Discharge Requirements” which sought to free up 15,000 beds by 27 March by “fully funding” care homes to take them (which helped protect NHS) inadvertently seed problem in care homes across country?
... can see in these tables of PHE outbreak data that I’ve followed for six weeks, by week, by region, and by council, the later average peak (wk commencing 20/4), but then the even later peaks in care home outbreaks in different places (as late as 27/4)... all while lockdown on
Third question - did April 2 guidance “as part of national effort, care sector accepts patients as they are discharged from hospital” and “negative tests are not required prior to admissions into care home” even for some who have previously tested positive for Covid play a part?
Incidentally the guidance to care homes on April 2nd included a table on how to deal with Covid-positive hospital discharges who had not completed isolation... saying they should stay in room, and staff use PPE
Here to @BBCFileon4 a boss of 14 care homes in Newcastle: “Twice we rang hospital saying we can’t accept this person back, we need a negative test so we know what we’re dealing with...turned up at the door anyway in an ambulance & refused to go away.”
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0…
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0…
Fourth question:
wasnt just freeing up 15k NHS beds with discharges, new Nightingales became mini-ICUs for NHS with unused ventilators.
Should they not have been used as in China, as “fever clinics” to prevent discharge directly to vulnerable care homes?
wasnt just freeing up 15k NHS beds with discharges, new Nightingales became mini-ICUs for NHS with unused ventilators.
Should they not have been used as in China, as “fever clinics” to prevent discharge directly to vulnerable care homes?
... this was live issue, matters for future - someone involved in Cygnus presumed in mid March the Nightingales shd be China-style field hospitals/ fever clinics, basically used to prevent spread as much as treating people.
Weren’t used like that, weren’t used v much at all..
Weren’t used like that, weren’t used v much at all..
Lastly - did focus on ventilators distract from more basic task of getting PPE out exactly where and when acutely needed?
NHS denied in April 2 guidance any diversion of PPE, but some care home bosses were told they couldn’t get stock from normal supply lines, when needed most..
NHS denied in April 2 guidance any diversion of PPE, but some care home bosses were told they couldn’t get stock from normal supply lines, when needed most..
This thread is a decent explanation of why the guidance referred to above was given and how given effect in hospitals:
fear this could be a classic example of Goodharts Law - that when you target something (hospital capacity), the thing you target then ceases to be a decent measure of the problem you are seeking to solve (Covid deaths) - originally applied to monetary policy in the 70s...
PHE weekly outbreak data show 5876 care home outbreaks overall, weekly numbers now down for care homes, but still well above normal levels per week for flu of 5-20, at 295 last week.. including 28 new ones last week in London, including reinfections. 49% in NE, 44% in London, NW
Upper tier council areas where more than 3 new care home Covid outbreaks reported to PHE - in week to May 17th ... 100/151 reported at least one, giving a measure that although the extent is thankfully coming down, geographical spread still wide...
Majority (176/316) of lower tier council areas saw at least one new care home Covid outbreak (defined by two or more cases/ suspected cases) reported to PHE last week (to May 17th)...
... perhaps this chart next week will show this week the care home outbreaks in the low dozens - for now latest data still shows a very high level of new outbreaks being reported, although down from the off the scale numbers since April...
