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Denmark's government disease research center (SSI):

We've opened the economy. People aren't getting sick. We're very confused.
Please join me in imagining a White House COVID update where the president goes,

"Amazing news! Transmission rates have declined dramatically. I can't take credit without more data. Let's study this more! Remember to practice social distancing and epistemic uncertainty."
Link to the above Denmark article: I used Google translate nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-0…
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More from @DKThomp see all

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Derek Thompson
@DKThomp
Korea CDC study on a fitness dance class outbreak
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…

Large classes + small spaces + intensity = bad news

"The moist, warm atmosphere coupled with turbulent air flow generated by intense physical exercise can cause more dense transmission of droplets."
"Of note, instructor C taught Pilates and yoga for classes of 7–8 students in the same facility ... but none of her students tested positive. We hypothesize that the lower intensity of Pilates/yoga did not cause the same transmission effects as the more intense fitness classes."
Bad news for SoulCyle.
Good news for Peleton.
Meh news for yoga classes.

"Because of the increased possibility of infection through droplets, vigorous exercise in closely confined spaces should be avoided during the current outbreak."

Full study: wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
Read 4 tweets
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Derek Thompson
@DKThomp
Now that's three CDC studies—from a Chinese restaurant, a Korean call center, and an American choir practice—all finding that talking, laughing, singing in close quarters, in unventilated interiors, for many hours, is the perfect storm for a COVID super-spreader event.
The Chinese study
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…

Finding: Three Guangzhou families sitting in direct path of AC airflow get sick from droplet transmission.

Practical advice: Increase distance between tables in restaurants, increase ventilation, maybe move diners outside.
The Korean study
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…

Finding: Outbreak in Korean call center concentrated on one side of 11th floor "despite interaction btw workers on different floors in the elevators"

Practical advice: risk = exposure X time; shared air more risky than shared surfaces
Read 6 tweets
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Derek Thompson
@DKThomp
Americans didn't wait for governors to tell them to stay home.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ameri…

In every state, the majority of the increase in home lockdowns happened before the governor issued a stay-at-home order.
Between March 9 and March 12:

- the Dow plunged
- Italy locked down
- the NBA canceled its season
- the Hanks' were positively diagnosed
- and media coverage skyrocketed

The American lockdown wasn't state-issued. It was information-based.
I see three factors here: viral contagion, social contagion, and law. In March, all three moved in one direction: the virus spread, fear + self-lockdowns spread, then govs issued orders.

Going forward, I think things will be much more disorganized.
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