JPMorgan has a devastating piece arguing that infection rates have declined — not increased — in states where lockdowns have ended, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.” (Kolonavic)
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Same goes for various countries, adds JPM. “This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have its own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented..”
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More JPM: “In the absence of conclusive data, these lockdowns were justified initially.” But “millions of lives were being destroyed .. with little consideration that [lockdowns] might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths than COVID-19 itself.”
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JPM: Demagogues “will be tempted to use COVID-19 to blame immigrants, people of a different race, or use the pandemic as a pretext to intensify geopolitical tensions. .. We will closely monitor how these risks evolve, but at this point see them as potential tail risks..”
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JPM: “The initial response of the administration was to downplay the risk of the COVID-19 epidemic. However, since then, this simplistic thesis changed significantly. The administration shifted to forecasting a larger negative impact (setting the stage for them to ‘outperform’ ..
... shifting the pandemic blame to China and the WHO, and .. shifting the blame for economic pain to large blue states that are perceived to be slowing down the reopening of the economy. Indeed, allowed economic activity across the country is now largely following partisan lines”
—> it should be noted that JPM’s Kolanovic came close to calling the peak in US cases back on April 6. (The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% since this tweet)
