Thread by @DmitryOpines

1/ With the UK's new tariff schedule released, we have a revised picture of what's at risk for the two sides in the EU-UK FTA negotiations.

I've looked at the 2018 data to help you get a visual, and made two charts for your consideration.

2/ Let's start with this one. This is a look at how much (in $ terms) of what the UK and EU sold to each other in 2018 would have been subject to tariffs if they were trading on WTO terms.

In other words, if Brexit happened in 2017 and no FTA was in place.

3/ As you can see, the two graphs actually look pretty similar proportionally.

However, the EU trade surplus means more of their exports in dollar terms would face high (>5% or non-AV) tariffs.

Conversely, more of their exports in $ terms would also remain tariff free.

4/ The contrast here is with the previously announced "No-Deal Tariffs" where the UK was going to liberalize FAR harder.

There, trading on WTO terms would have been far less of a blow to the EU.

5/ In this next chart, I show the same information but with added context.

The grey bars on each graph represent the EU and UK's exports to places other than one another.

6/ Notes:

"Non-Ad Valorem Tariffs" are tariffs that aren't just a percentage of value, but include a "Flat" component like $5/100kg.

You can generally file most (but not all) of them away in your mind as being in the same box as "over 5% tariffs".

7/ Notes:

I've used the UK Government's import and export statistics, because that's what @ITCnews draws on and their data analysis portal (ITC Trade Map) is my favorite.

8/ Notes:

Though there are solid arguments for doing so, I have deliberately not included Intra-EU27 exports for 2 reasons.

a) An extra $4 trillion in the EU grey bar would make the graph unreadable.
b) I don't have intra-UK Nations data so I'd be accused of bias.

9/ Question:

"Can you do this at a sector (Agriculture/Cars/Prosecco) or national (Ireland/France/Germany) level?"

Answer:

"I can and my fees are reasonable."