Serious people are making wild predictions about the post-pandemic future.
“It’s the end of globalization!”
“There will be no more bars and no more parties!”
@TheAltantic, I explain why I don’t but that—and what changes might really happen.
[Thread.]
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
“It’s the end of globalization!”
“There will be no more bars and no more parties!”
@TheAltantic, I explain why I don’t but that—and what changes might really happen.
[Thread.]
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
1) Human Sociability Will Bounce Back
The Spanish Influenza killed more than fifty million people, many of them young and healthy.
It was followed by the Roaring Twenties.
The Spanish Influenza killed more than fifty million people, many of them young and healthy.
It was followed by the Roaring Twenties.
This is far from atypical.
Throughout history, humanity has, again and again, experienced pestilence.
None of these diseases lastingly stopped people from seeking out one another’s company.
Throughout history, humanity has, again and again, experienced pestilence.
None of these diseases lastingly stopped people from seeking out one another’s company.
Humans also brave other dangers to socialize.
In Tel Aviv, Baghdad, and Paris, the bars and restaurants were full even when there was a heightened risk of terrorism.
And in Rio and Mexico City, the restaurants remain full despite the threat of robberies or kidnappings.
In Tel Aviv, Baghdad, and Paris, the bars and restaurants were full even when there was a heightened risk of terrorism.
And in Rio and Mexico City, the restaurants remain full despite the threat of robberies or kidnappings.
No one knows how long this pandemic will last. But its impact on the extent of human sociability will surely prove to be temporary.
Five or 10 years from now, there will be about as many mass gatherings as there were before the coronavirus.
Because we’re human.
Five or 10 years from now, there will be about as many mass gatherings as there were before the coronavirus.
Because we’re human.
2) The Pandemic Probably Won’t End Globalization
A lot of people are predicting the end of “neoliberalism” or (🙄) “globalism.”
COVID-19 has shown various things to be irrational—👋giant wave of the hand👋—so those things must surely end.
That’s not how the world works.
A lot of people are predicting the end of “neoliberalism” or (🙄) “globalism.”
COVID-19 has shown various things to be irrational—👋giant wave of the hand👋—so those things must surely end.
That’s not how the world works.
Many institution persist even though most people believe them to be unjust, irrational, or ineffective.
Take the UN Security Council. No one likes it. But everyone has different ideas for how to change it. And some countries don’t want to dilute their power.
👉 It limps along.
Take the UN Security Council. No one likes it. But everyone has different ideas for how to change it. And some countries don’t want to dilute their power.
👉 It limps along.
These collective action problems also vitiate many predictions about the post-COVID world.
Is it rational for companies to rely less on just-in-time production? Probably.
Will consumers still prefer cheaper goods? Definitely.
Can CEOs risk losing market share? Probably not.
Is it rational for companies to rely less on just-in-time production? Probably.
Will consumers still prefer cheaper goods? Definitely.
Can CEOs risk losing market share? Probably not.
Even takeaways that seem obvious to those of us who lean left are not shared all that widely.
I believe this pandemic shows the urgent need to reinvest in key institutions like the CDC.
Many Americans believe it shows that government can never get the job done.
Who’ll win? 🤷♂️
I believe this pandemic shows the urgent need to reinvest in key institutions like the CDC.
Many Americans believe it shows that government can never get the job done.
Who’ll win? 🤷♂️
Philosophers beware the “natural fallacy”: just because something *is* the case does not mean that it *ought* to be.
Similarly, we all should beware the “predictive fallacy”: Just because we now believe something *ought* be the case hardly means that it *will* be.
Similarly, we all should beware the “predictive fallacy”: Just because we now believe something *ought* be the case hardly means that it *will* be.
3) The Changes that Will Happen
This is not to say that the post-pandemic future will look just like the past. Of course it should—and, yes, will—bring about some important changes.
Most likely, those changes will fall into three categories.
This is not to say that the post-pandemic future will look just like the past. Of course it should—and, yes, will—bring about some important changes.
Most likely, those changes will fall into three categories.
Small Yet Significant Changes
Smart governments will, for example, insist on being able to produce critical goods at home. This will significantly change the course of globalization.
But since these goods are a small percentage of the world economy, it won’t slow or end it.
Smart governments will, for example, insist on being able to produce critical goods at home. This will significantly change the course of globalization.
But since these goods are a small percentage of the world economy, it won’t slow or end it.
Acceleration of Existing Trends
As Roberto Foa and I have argued, e.g., autocracies now rival the economic might of democracies for the first time in over a century.
With China seemingly emerging from COVID-19 faster than the U.S., this massive geopolitical shift may speed up.
As Roberto Foa and I have argued, e.g., autocracies now rival the economic might of democracies for the first time in over a century.
With China seemingly emerging from COVID-19 faster than the U.S., this massive geopolitical shift may speed up.
Big Yet Unpredictable Changes
According to some historians, the Black Death caused the end of serfdom in much of Western Europe.
It’s imaginable that COVID-19 could bring about similarly vast changes. But if so, they will probably be too counterintuitive for us to predict them.
According to some historians, the Black Death caused the end of serfdom in much of Western Europe.
It’s imaginable that COVID-19 could bring about similarly vast changes. But if so, they will probably be too counterintuitive for us to predict them.
Medieval lords, after all, didn't abolish serfdom because they came to recognize the irrationality of the system.
Rather, the death toll so depleted the labor force that serfs were put in a stronger bargaining position—a consequence that contemporaries utterly failed to predict.
Rather, the death toll so depleted the labor force that serfs were put in a stronger bargaining position—a consequence that contemporaries utterly failed to predict.
The coronavirus pandemic is a tragedy of historic magnitude. It may well be remembered as the most significant global event since the fall of the Soviet Union.
I do not in any way mean to downplay either that magnitude or the suffering it will continue to cause.
I do not in any way mean to downplay either that magnitude or the suffering it will continue to cause.
But sooner or later, this bout of pestilence will come to an end.
Humanity will survive this pandemic. In its aftermath, we will, as after so many other disasters, learn to thrive anew.
And although the world we then inhabit will be different, it won’t be unrecognizable.
[End]
Humanity will survive this pandemic. In its aftermath, we will, as after so many other disasters, learn to thrive anew.
And although the world we then inhabit will be different, it won’t be unrecognizable.
[End]
