(As followers know, I have spent a shitload of time looking at data worldwide and R estimations, so I think I'm qualified for a thread!)
Whatever the approach you use, you should be very careful when you draw conclusions because a) the data is absolutely messy b) the estimates are far from an exact science.
The purpose of the lockdown is to bring down R way below 1.
I repeat.
The purpose of the lockdown is to bring down R way below 1.
Almost all countries did this.
This is obvious!
Of course, the infection rate won’t go up even if R goes up and gets closer to 1 (which is dangerous).
As long as R is below 1, the infection rate goes down.
End/
Please an edit button ffs!