Re-doing some old research on VP picks and one thing that's pretty clear is that there's a bigger home-state effect if the VP comes from a smaller state. The same holds for presidential candidates themselves.
A good rule of thumb is that a VP is worth a net of 20/EV percentage points in their home state, where EV is the number of electoral votes.
So, e.g. Pence is worth 20/11 = ~1.8 points to Trump in Indiana.
Or Whitmer would be worth 20/16 = ~1.3 points to Biden in Michigan.
So, e.g. Pence is worth 20/11 = ~1.8 points to Trump in Indiana.
Or Whitmer would be worth 20/16 = ~1.3 points to Biden in Michigan.
It's likely that Sarah Palin was worth a lot to McCain in Alaska (this method would estimate ~6.7 points). Polls had actually shown a close-ish race there before she was chosen.
But picking a VP from a big state like say CA or TX or FL likely won't give you that kind of bounce.
But picking a VP from a big state like say CA or TX or FL likely won't give you that kind of bounce.
