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amazing paper. 40-60% of population that have NOT had SARS-CoV-2 already have activated T Cells to the virus! likely due to cross-reactivity w/ other "common cold coronaviruses". may explain large % having easy time clearing virus and/or mild/no symptoms. cell.com/action/showPdf…
"... CD4+ T cell responses were detected in 40-60% of unexposed individuals. This may be reflective of some degree of crossreactive, preexisting immunity to SARSCoV-2 in some, but not all, individuals..."
"Whether this immunity is relevant in influencing clinical
outcomes is unknown—and cannot be known without T cell measurements before and after SARSCoV-2 infection of individuals—..."
"...but it is tempting to speculate that the crossreactive CD4+ T cells may be of value in protective immunity, based on SARS mouse models "
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david friedberg
@friedberg
"re-opening" is not a binary thing. People, Places, and Processes (PPP) define our current and future state. which people can go out, where they can go, what processes are in place when they do go out.
we aren't in a binary lockdown today. in sf, for example, anyone can go to the grocery store or "exercise outside". there are some processes in place (i.e. must wear masks to enter the grocery store; but not req'd to do temp checking on entry). our "lockdown" is already nuanced.
thus, it's not ideal to talk abt binary states. and it's non-sensical to believe we can "crush" the virus. even if # infected ppl in US fell to 50 we'd be where we were early March & infected would expand as before w/o a change in PPP. you can't just "return to normal"
Read 15 tweets
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david friedberg
@friedberg
love @UCSF and @UCSFMedicine grand rounds video,

here are my tl;dw notes if you don't have the time to watch:
epidemiology:
- asian response to pandemic was informed by their experience with SARS. already common practice to wear masks in public, knew how to rapidly test & trace, isolation protocol planned & ready; thus, better curve flattening over US
- outbreak now much worse in Europe and US than it ever was in China
- key metric to watch is daily new cases per 1M pop
- china peaked at 10, spain steady over past week at 173, italy steady over past week at 100, US now at 90 rising every day (these are my calcs)
Read 25 tweets
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david friedberg
@friedberg
antibody testing update:
- now seeing some asymptomatic infections in general pop
- don't have enough high quality day to conclude anything
- <60% of tests distributed are reporting
- there is clear bias in the data
- there are sensitivity issues with test kits
(details follow)
data:
- 437 reported results
- 11 positive, 401 neg, 24 inconclusive (user error)
- of positive:
-- 4 out of state (ppl shipped test to sick friends)
-- 3 known cases (broke protocol)
-- 2/392 in SF, 2/40 on peninsula
-- 100% of positives reported SOME symptoms vs 71% of negs
we traced positives we report here to verify. i think tests underrepresent true positives based on performance w c19 PCR+ patient sera. however 0.5% of SF population (our limited data shows) is 10x reported rate. but i dont have faith in our data given bias, cleanliness, & scale.
Read 9 tweets

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