1/ We can #OpenSafely.
Together with @USofCare, @ResolveTSL, @DukeMargolis, and @USDResponse we've been tracking how states are progressing on key measures: (1) disease spread, (2) impact on health system & (3) testing robustness
covidexitstrategy.org
What have we learned?
Together with @USofCare, @ResolveTSL, @DukeMargolis, and @USDResponse we've been tracking how states are progressing on key measures: (1) disease spread, (2) impact on health system & (3) testing robustness
covidexitstrategy.org
What have we learned?
2/ **We are only as good as the data that is publicly available**
We rely on @COVID19Tracking, rt.live, and @CDCgov. Two are volunteer efforts and one is a government agency.
We need our @CDCgov to publish real-time, machine-readable data like the others do.
We rely on @COVID19Tracking, rt.live, and @CDCgov. Two are volunteer efforts and one is a government agency.
We need our @CDCgov to publish real-time, machine-readable data like the others do.
3/ **Testing is hard, but 12 states have shown it is possible to hit baseline targets**
A baseline of 500K/day is needed to protect frontline workers and patients with symptoms. A higher target of 4M/day is needed to properly surveil the virus.
preventepidemics.org/wp-content/upl…
A baseline of 500K/day is needed to protect frontline workers and patients with symptoms. A higher target of 4M/day is needed to properly surveil the virus.
preventepidemics.org/wp-content/upl…
4/ **38 states are still behind on meeting the baseline target**
Many of these states have the capacity, but people are not getting tested. Why? Because of the restrictive policies originally put in place. Now states have to reeducate and encourage.
washingtonpost.com/health/as-coro…
Many of these states have the capacity, but people are not getting tested. Why? Because of the restrictive policies originally put in place. Now states have to reeducate and encourage.
washingtonpost.com/health/as-coro…
5/ **Because testing is such an important measure, some states are doing shocking things like conflating anti-body testing with viral testing**
Why is this shocking? Let @alexismadrigal and @yayitsrob explain:
Why is this shocking? Let @alexismadrigal and @yayitsrob explain:
6/ **As you track test count, you also need to track a state's test positivity rate**
If you are testing wide and well, positivity will be below 5%.
@ResolveTSL put out great guidance on what those targets should be. Both for tests per thousand and positivity.
If you are testing wide and well, positivity will be below 5%.
@ResolveTSL put out great guidance on what those targets should be. Both for tests per thousand and positivity.
7/ **The potential burden on a state's health system widely ranges across the country**
We use a proxy for burden by looking at new cases per million per day.
States like RI, DC, DE, IL, MD, MA, CT, NE are seeing more than 150 cases per million people.
AL, VT, MO, HI are < 5
We use a proxy for burden by looking at new cases per million per day.
States like RI, DC, DE, IL, MD, MA, CT, NE are seeing more than 150 cases per million people.
AL, VT, MO, HI are < 5
8/ **When one metric looks good, you need to quality check it by looking at another**
AL, VT, MO, HI were less than 5 cases per million.
Sounds great, but none of those states hit the baseline testing target. More testing needs to be done to be confident in the case count.
AL, VT, MO, HI were less than 5 cases per million.
Sounds great, but none of those states hit the baseline testing target. More testing needs to be done to be confident in the case count.
9/ **The risk of COVID will never go to zero, so we have to be alert and adjust our behavior accordingly**
The team at @ResolveTSL with @DrTomFrieden and @CyrusShahpar released an Alert-Level System to improve how we communicate risk to the public.
The team at @ResolveTSL with @DrTomFrieden and @CyrusShahpar released an Alert-Level System to improve how we communicate risk to the public.
10/ **We need to be on HIGH ALERT as we move through our communities, visit stores, and return to offices***
It is critical that we continue to wear masks around others, maintain physical distance, and limit our gathering sizes.
covidexitstrategy.org/alert-level-sy…
It is critical that we continue to wear masks around others, maintain physical distance, and limit our gathering sizes.
covidexitstrategy.org/alert-level-sy…
11/ **States need to report data on health worker infections and the progress they are making on contact tracing**
This data is likely being tracked by every state public health department. We need each state to begin to share these numbers openly, so the public is aware.
This data is likely being tracked by every state public health department. We need each state to begin to share these numbers openly, so the public is aware.
12/12 **Without a therapy or vaccine, our individual actions matter the most in stopping the spread**
The most effective interventions we have today cost almost nothing: a cloth mask, respecting people's space, using FaceTime instead of meeting in person & staying home when sick
The most effective interventions we have today cost almost nothing: a cloth mask, respecting people's space, using FaceTime instead of meeting in person & staying home when sick
