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Trading lessons can be useful in life

My mentor reinforced the idea of;

"Position yourself to get lucky"

An example was friends complaining to me they couldn't meet 'a keeper' when all they did was get wasted in clubs full of people on holiday

I went about it differently...
I joined the new co-working office and started signing up for the events

-Figured only 'real' remote workers would be there with the $200mth fee (instead of cafes)

-On an island where everyone is coming and going, you can work out who is more permanent and build friendships
Fast forward 3mths and I met Mia who was successful and independent

She didn't visit any of the clubs my friends went to as they were too touristy

We're 2yrs into having a villa next to the beach in Bali & usually travel half the year

My friends are still hitting the clubs...
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Ferg
@trader_ferg
"Last time we did money printing nothing happened"

Few people actually understand why we got away with it

1/ It was done at the same time China was undertaking massive infrastructure spending

2/Tech also held prices down

3/Globalisation was in full swing which is deflationary
All these factors have now broken down or reversed

Globalisation is now dead.

Talk is of restoring national production chains which is hugely inflationary (rebuilding the chain and doing it with a higher cost labour force).

Supply chains are also broken at both ends
We now have a supply shock and a demand shock

Tech offshoring manufacturing may have to be re-shored with the corresponding price increases. Tech startups can no longer burn cash indefinitely

What we are seeing in the commodities (particularly oil) is further reduction of CAPEX
Read 5 tweets
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Ferg
@trader_ferg
Thread on Kazakhs Production

Kazakh's can now sell their uranium at the spot price to their Swiss marketing subsidiary which can then market it higher aboard or pool inventory to sell at a higher price

No more direct selling into spot market as per Kazakhs transfer pricing laws
ISR Production

“It’s important to keep in mind that ISR production is similar to oil and gas production. It produces a lot when the well is first tapped and then production declines. As the production declines, new wells are drilled to offset the production decline rates."
First is mine exploration and mine development expenditures where Kazak’s have gone from spending $94m a year in 2011 to $18m in 2017. It's hard to imagine an 80% drop in mine exploration and development investment coinciding with increasing production (or even being maintained).
Read 6 tweets
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Ferg
@trader_ferg
My mentors rules of thumb

1. Asymmetry in all positions

2. Position yourself to get lucky

3. Make it harder for the market to take money off you by spreading in into more asymmetric trades
4.Mean reversion: Excessive outperformance is usually matched by equal or greater underperformance

5. It's not the view its the application of the view that matters

6.Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, mature in optimism and die in euphoria-John Templeton
7. When everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong, because no one is thinking. -Humphrey Neil
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