1/ Modes of Effort
Why can't you manage a research lab the same way as a construction project? How were we able to accomplish large scale collaborative efforts such as the Apollo program or Manhattan Project, but can't do the same thing for curing cancer?
Why can't you manage a research lab the same way as a construction project? How were we able to accomplish large scale collaborative efforts such as the Apollo program or Manhattan Project, but can't do the same thing for curing cancer?
2/ Efforts (pursuits of some objective) can be classified based on the certainty their means and ends.
This can help us guide management methods and understand why some efforts are harder than others.
This can help us guide management methods and understand why some efforts are harder than others.
3/ How do we classify efforts into modes?
The best paradigm I've come across is the How/What quadrants. In 1994 Eddie Obeng described 4 types of projects: quests, movies, painting by numbers, and fog.
The best paradigm I've come across is the How/What quadrants. In 1994 Eddie Obeng described 4 types of projects: quests, movies, painting by numbers, and fog.
4/ @vgr explored the concept much further in his GUTS essay:
us1.campaign-archive.com/?u=78cbbb7f288…
His visualization of critical paths and point frontiers is a particularly insightful way to think about the concept.
us1.campaign-archive.com/?u=78cbbb7f288…
His visualization of critical paths and point frontiers is a particularly insightful way to think about the concept.
5/ Here's my version of the full diagram.
🔴 = critical paths
🔵 = indirect adaptation
🟢 = areas of value
🔴 = critical paths
🔵 = indirect adaptation
🟢 = areas of value
6/ WHY-AXIS (ends)
❓know what ↔ Know what. How specific & certain is desired outcome?
🌫 Broad goal = divergent thinking w many potential destinations
🎯 Specific goal = convergent thinking, single "correct" destination
Diverge/explore/indefinite ↔ Converge/exploit/definite
❓know what ↔ Know what. How specific & certain is desired outcome?
🌫 Broad goal = divergent thinking w many potential destinations
🎯 Specific goal = convergent thinking, single "correct" destination
Diverge/explore/indefinite ↔ Converge/exploit/definite
7/ HOW-AXIS (means)
Know how ↔ don't know how. How well are methods to reach the outcome known?
✅ how = running lean, critical path(s)/bottlenecks are known
❓ how = running fat, make progress by indirect/oblique adaptation
Lean/direct/efficient ↔ Fat/oblique/inefficient
Know how ↔ don't know how. How well are methods to reach the outcome known?
✅ how = running lean, critical path(s)/bottlenecks are known
❓ how = running fat, make progress by indirect/oblique adaptation
Lean/direct/efficient ↔ Fat/oblique/inefficient
8/ PLAY/FOG
Broad objective with no specific outcome + no known method to find value. Optimizing here can hurt, leading you to miss most valuable parts (global optimum). Many dead-ends. Maximally oblique & adaptive.
Can either be liberating (Play) or dangerously uncertain (Fog)
Broad objective with no specific outcome + no known method to find value. Optimizing here can hurt, leading you to miss most valuable parts (global optimum). Many dead-ends. Maximally oblique & adaptive.
Can either be liberating (Play) or dangerously uncertain (Fog)
9/ QUEST
You know where you want to go, but it's too complex to know (globally) how to get there. Many paths—choosing from limited options—must be taken, some progressing & some dead-ends. @vgr: "you can only optimize bits of the system at a time"
You know where you want to go, but it's too complex to know (globally) how to get there. Many paths—choosing from limited options—must be taken, some progressing & some dead-ends. @vgr: "you can only optimize bits of the system at a time"
10/ EXPLORATION
A frontier of value but no specific outcome can be planned for. How is known: the effort is based on a *method* to make progress. As progress is made, events along the way can result in different outcomes. Efficient but open to range of outcomes.
A frontier of value but no specific outcome can be planned for. How is known: the effort is based on a *method* to make progress. As progress is made, events along the way can result in different outcomes. Efficient but open to range of outcomes.
11/ PROJECT
The traditional "project" they teach about in B-school. You know what you want + how to get it, the rest is execution. A single critical path can be managed for efficiency, with some "side" paths being more uncertain. Maximally direct & prescriptive.
The traditional "project" they teach about in B-school. You know what you want + how to get it, the rest is execution. A single critical path can be managed for efficiency, with some "side" paths being more uncertain. Maximally direct & prescriptive.
12/ Some examples:
1️⃣ Play/fog: R&D divisions, curing cancer, climate change, finding happiness
2️⃣ Quest: COVID cure, moon landing, many VC-backed startups
3️⃣ Explore: movies, oil prospecting, explorers, lean/agile startups
4️⃣ Project: Construction, manufacturing, logistics
1️⃣ Play/fog: R&D divisions, curing cancer, climate change, finding happiness
2️⃣ Quest: COVID cure, moon landing, many VC-backed startups
3️⃣ Explore: movies, oil prospecting, explorers, lean/agile startups
4️⃣ Project: Construction, manufacturing, logistics
13/13 📶 Efforts are recursive & multi-scale. Just as short-term goals are part of bigger visions, all efforts fit in a hierarchy. A Fog may have many Quests, which may have many Projects.
(More on this in an upcoming thread, along with how best to *manage* each mode of effort)
(More on this in an upcoming thread, along with how best to *manage* each mode of effort)
