FCF@ Avg pretax margins of 27%: $400M
* 14x multiple
= $5.7B
- $2.1B net debt
- $0.6B noncontrolling interest
= $3B equity value
/ 84.6M shares
= $36 per share vs. $21 now
If 3-5yr margins drop to 24% (12 year avg), value/share ~= $28.
Their worst recent sales year, 2009, saw sales drop 11% and margins fall to 13% before recovering in 2010.