Thread by @plaforscience

We have finished the analysis from Spanish death curve's tendencies.
As daily data is suffering of criteria changes and notification gaps, we made the weekly average for better understanding.
A clear straight line appears, whose changes doesn't appear to relate with restrictions.

Tendencies are in log scale, while death data in linear.
Green line is daily tendency, and suffers from notification anomalies.
Red line is the weekly average, as Spain's gov uses.
Bars are daily deads, and it's curve fitting points clearly Gompertz, as expected with tendency.

Colour bars means different confinement degree.Some restriction could appear to slightly bend down the curve,but the highest RELIEF restrictions causes the best result.
That inadequate relation between measures and tendency points to natural cluster causes more than restrictions.

It's important to understand that we use the death table for being the most reliable. But as dead takes a median for Spain ~20 days, it's much better understood if we move the measures lines ~20 days later.
You can see how NONCHALANT to lockdown curve remains!!

@MLevitt_NP2013

Just for laughs at the mistake. Our red line is related directly to our Rt value. Here's OFFICIAL interpretation of Rt evolution according to the wrong estimate from PCR model.

What in nature follows this pattern!!! Not related AT ALL neither with restrictions.

@daniellevitt22