Thread by @fascinatorfun

This REALLY should be getting much more attention today.

It includes some killer (literally) facts.

And getting your head around the timeline and importance of the 3-9 March inaction in particular really matters.

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1264459136441430016

@pmdfoster has provided some helpful details but Johnson

1/ On 2nd March message “business as usual
2/ On 3rd March - visit to hospital with CV patients. “I shook hands with everyone....I shall continue shaking hands with everyone.
3/ Still describing the risk as moderate

4/. Although the first deaths were announced on 6th March we now know that deaths had occurred by the time he made his 2nd and 3rd March speeches. Unthinkable that he had not been warned or not told community +ves doubling every day or two.

https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1264277185923334145

5/. And that was DESPITE very limited testing because he ALREADY KNEW that the capacity was not there.
Nor the capacity to trace at scale
Nor the PPE
Nor the ventilators or other oxygen supply capacity.
Nor sufficient staff

He knew it.

But bottled it

6/. And this is the kicker. Imperial shared the modelling on 3rd March that “mitigation” could lead to 250k deaths. And Old Cummings was in the SAGE group that had these data.

HE DEFINITELY KNEW in a specific sort of way because, you know, unlike Johnson he LOVES data.

7/. So what did Cummings pass on to Johnson? Remember, by then the Italian deaths were beginning to accelerate quite fast. Spain was on the trajectory.

Doesn’t sound like the scientists were recommending herd immunity as a strategy (rather than a consequence to me.

8/. Because Johnson was STILL bottling it because “the economy” you know, despite scientists calling for earlier action

And that has cost the economy dear. And, despite lockdown, it resulted in an estimated 1.5million infections to really poison our communities.

9/. It always puzzled me that Whitty (to select committee on 5th March said they were moving out of phase one and into phase 2 when more action was needed...yet Johnson was not. He carried on as before.

And the deaths

Oh. The deaths.

Sorry. This is the infection graph!

I would love to know what was in the private exchanges and emails between advisers and Cummings and Johnson.

It is always interesting to see what the Government later tries to bury as it reveals knowledge that it was the wrong message. Deleting the on the 2nd March “business as usual” message part of the video clip points to a recognition LATER that he said the wrong thing.

Also revealing that NERVTAG committee (emerging virus expert group) are saying they did make it clear that early action was needed.

That rather blows a hole in the suggestion that the Government were “following THE Science”.

They 🍒 picked from the range of risks posed in the exposition of science which does include the uncertainties. That can be seen from the SAGE papers..

Courtesy of the excellent @brexit_sham who has resurrected the 2/3/20 clip that the Gov later altered to exclude the reference to “very much business as usual” given how fast it was NOT business as usual.

https://twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/1264578370890878978

Also note the usual wide boy sales pitch reference to “fantastic” testing & “amazing” tracing (having cut them both to the bone over 10 years..esp the last 5years).

The people doing it might be very good, but if you’ve cut the capacity only the absence is “amazing” in a bad way