You have to see the Cummings fiasco in context of the Tories options - which are very sparse 1/ The economy is tanking, and worse than needed because of the late lockdown. Their response? To create uncertainty around the rules in the hope there'll be a push for faster opening...
2/ So there'll be a second wave. When that wave comes, the people who were against the first lockdown - the libertarian right of the Tory party - will foment a "revolt": this time let's save "the economy" not the elderly...
3/ The villains will be: Labour, the unions, local councils and the courts (for enforcing H&S law)... and by that time the economy really will be screwed: furlough scheme reduced, mass layoffs, key industries on life support...
4/ Johnson needs to keep Cummings because Cummings is the architect of the ultimate project: reshape Britain through chaos - the same "big reset button" fantasised about by the Trumpian right...
5/ Cummings is the link to dark tech firms, the Vote Leave networks etc... with Johnson sadly debilitated post-virus, he's running a large part of the machine...
6/ But there is still a liberal wing of the Tory party, which values rule of law, propriety, expertise; and still an unpoliticised civil service - Cummings' project has barely begun because Covid-19 got in the way...
7/ No deal Brexit under cover of the Covid slump has drifted into the centre of their strategy: but there's no agreement about what to do about the >380bn deficit they're generating - everything depends for the Tories on us, the people, rejecting the next lockdown...
8/ Since early April they must have known this story was going to break. The only sensible way to play it is: Cummings as everyman, sneakily breaking the rules last time, and not going to put up with them again next time... and that's the narrative happening now.
