The harrowing video of Bolsonaro's cabinet meeting, which reveals the gov's complete disregard of the independence of the judiciary & the environment, confirms Brazil's pariah status in the West in a near irreversible manner. That may limit the West's leverage over BR [thread👇]
The gov in Brasília knows that Bolsonaro's image in the West is beyond repair. During his 500 days in power, he relished in his cartoonish global villain status, expressing nostalgia for dictatorship and torture, promoted environmental destruction and mishandled the pandemic.
Latin American nations are now worried about how the pandemic in Brazil may affect them. No democratic European leader is likely to accept taking a picture with Bolsonaro. Expect delays ranging from OECD membership to ratification of the Mercosur-EU trade deal.
And make no mistake: Trump's Brazil Travel Ban is, above all, an electoral stunt, just like his decision to ban flights from Europe earlier this year. Trump could hardly care less how it affects Brazil's president Bolsonaro or the bilateral relationship to Brazil.
The problem with all that is that, with the damage to Brazil's image well past the point of no return, the West has fewer tools to influence Bolsonaro - he is cornered and so radicalized that he is unlikely to care about carrots western leaders may offer, or sticks they may wield
