Folks, sharing some thoughts on the latest standoff between IA and PLA in Ladakh.
Will keep it short since the situation is still developing.
Won't be talking about military aspects at all, in fact.
So here is my take on it all ..
As of right now, China has already so much fronts on which it is fighting lately - SCS, Taiwan, W.H.O, Trade War, Hong Kong COVID-19 itself - do you really think they would want to open another new front out of the blue?
Especially on a border which is quite peaceful?
One thing that is not apparent right away is the internal power struggle going within the CCP. Xi Jinping is fighting for his very survival, for if he loses, he loses not just his position, but his very life will be in danger.
Then there is Trump, openly threatening and now slowly starting to act against Chinese interests. One very interesting threat coming in from the USA is that of publicly announcing the assets of corrupt CCP officials in the US!
Interesting, no?
Bottomline: A LOT of folks are NOT very happy with Xi Jinping.
What I see in this standoff is another front opened up not against India, but against Xi himself.
Remember, one of the top PLA commanders during Doklam was 'purged' soon thereafter on corruption charges.
The PLA has had a tendency to do such nonsense ahead of important events. They've done it before Xi Jinping's visit to India (Gujarat Trip).
Doklam happened just before the CCP's National Congress where Xi was to announce his successor, but instead announced appointing himself as Chairman for life and now this, when the 'two sessions' was scheduled to take place.
Yes, it might degenerate into a shooting match one of those days. That possibility is always there when men with weapons face-off, but given the posture of the GOI, it seems unlikely.
In fact, this announcement that comes at a really 'interesting' time, given India-Nepal as well as India-China relationship as of right now, doesn't it?
Bottomline - there are a LOT of wheels within wheels. Let history tell us what is happening today!