I think a number of climate scientists consider the disappearance of summer Arctic sea ice as relatively unlikely before 2035 - 2045, but I would suggest we could well hit 1.6C - 1.9C around 2027 - 2034.
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Two recent reports from the last few months suggest summer Arctic sea ice disappearance by the 2020s or 2030s is more likely than the 2039-2044 suggested here.
The critical question: will this lead to a rapid boost in global warming & extreme weather?
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scientificamerican.com/article/when-w…
The critical question: will this lead to a rapid boost in global warming & extreme weather?
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scientificamerican.com/article/when-w…
If ice-free Arctic summers became common this could lead to a staggering and obviously catastrophic 0.5C of additional global warming. It'd also influence permafrost thawing which could lead to an equally terrible ~0.2 to ~0.9 of warming by the 2090s.
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How much additional warming will we see from permafrost thaw in the coming decades?
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James Anderson (Harvard) predicted 2022. It's not impossible.
I'm sticking with 2021 - 2031 as my guess, with 2026-2029 looking quite likely to me.
Scientists seem less worried than me about albedo as a strong feedback.
Recent Arctic sea ice studies:
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I'm sticking with 2021 - 2031 as my guess, with 2026-2029 looking quite likely to me.
Scientists seem less worried than me about albedo as a strong feedback.
Recent Arctic sea ice studies:
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