Thread by @safiume

We need to go carbon neutral by:

We need to go carbon neutral by:
Never; climate change is a hoax; love the Exxon & the carbon majors
By 2040; still exceeds 450ppm. Exceeds most tipping elements, accelerates warming
By 2030; doesn’t exceed 450ppm nor largest tipping elements
ASAP; stops exceeding tipping points.

2040, provides smaller carbon budget overshoot yet it still exceeds 450ppm. It also exceeds most tipping elements except largest tipping elements.

2030 has minimal carbon budget overshoot; doesn’t exceed 450ppm and doesn't exceed largest tipping elements. It's not reflected in governmental policy. Nascent Carbon Tech industry support.

ASAP has no carbon budget overshoot and doesn’t exceed 450ppm. It has least amount of warming to set off more tipping elements; and not reflected in policy or industry.

As of today, at minimum we've set off all the stage one tipping elements, El Niño Southern Oscilliation, and are weakening the Arctic winter sea ice and Permafrost.

This paper: pnas.org/content/pnas/1… Defines the tipping elements: doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1…, & their temperature scale is the mean from 1720-1800 pnas.org/content/115/33…

When comparing temps in the berkeleyearth.org Db used in this Carbon Brief explainer: carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-eve…, subtract about .2ºC from the tipping elements. So, stg 1 tipping elements that start effects at 1ºC, now start at about .8ºC (relative to the 1950-1980 mean)

2040 by CO₂ ppm would be > 450ppm, including Corona adjustments & holding to minimal declining growth in fossil fuel use. W/ minimal declining growth to FF, we'd likely exceed 450ppm by 2035. Or try to hold to about 450 ppm.

450 ppm range puts us dangerously close to exceeding stage two tipping elements and further increasing effects from stage three tipping elements. A safer climate has less warming, and exceeds less tipping elements.

Decarbonization now requires the most cash for energy transition, more EVs, and advance heat production for metals & concrete, yet yields a safer & more equitable climate across generations. And helps meet SDGs, sustainabledevelopment.un.org 3,6,7-17. 10&16 are shared w/society.

Given how broken our democracy is right now, the US is not currently meeting SDG 10 or 16, besides the others. sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg10, sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg16