Thread by @yhazony

There’s a problem with writers who are paid to write on current affairs (under contract!) a few times a week.

That’s easy to do when things are going more or less like they have been for thirty years.

But what happens—e.g., now—when everything has been turned upside down?

Then all these pundits feel they have to keep talking as though they know what they’re talking about.

Why? Because they’re paid to do that.

But the truth is that most of what is being written by pundits right now is going to turn out to be way off base.

We can only think clearly and intelligently about things with which we have personal experience or relevant traditions.

Otherwise, we’re just confused.

And when you are confused, the last thing you want to be going is going on in public forums about events you don’t yet understand.

That just commits you told all sorts of opinions and theories that will later turn out to be nonsense.

Better watch carefully and learn.

But unfortunately, there’s all these people getting paid to comment. So they have to keep talking and talking even when they don’t understand what they are looking at.

Here’s a textbook case:

stltoday.com/opinion/column…

.@JonahDispatch proposes that national conservatives have blown their opportunity because three months of coronavirus have gone by—and yet he can’t see any big, public moves by the NatCons to capitalize on events.

The truth is different. Most players in the NatCon movement are doing what you should be doing, Jonah, which is studying the new circumstances, and making plans for what happens after.

The key in all this is not to make stupid moves on a terrain you can’t yet see clearly.

In other words—the most capable people I know are not shooting off their mouths right now.

They are learning.

Part of this learning process is making initial, tentative attempts to sketch the emerging political terrain.

The key here is to focus on the big picture that’s coming into view, even if not everything is clear.

Here’s a good example of such an attempt by the liberal essayist Paul Berman.

I don’t agree with everything here, but it’s obvious that Paul is struggling to map the emerging terrain, and a lot of it rings true:

google.co.il/amp/s/www.tabl…

Paul proposes three forces are critical: First, he sees that beneath the surface, national conservatism is rapidly gaining strength.

For months we’ve been hammered by evidence that nations are real and nationalism is needed so we can protect ourselves and our loved ones.

There is zero chance that people are going to forget what we’ve learned about international rivalry, national loyalties, family loyalties and more.

Expect a powerful upsurge in NatCont sympathies, ideas, programs, and politics.

At the same time, Paul points to two other countervailing forces: Covid-19 is strengthening sympathy for socialism and greatly empowering big tech.

Missing from Paul’s picture is the anti-government backlash on the right which is being driven by the lockdowns.

This isn’t a clear picture. It will take time to understand where we’re headed.

But the one point that’s clearest in all this is that nationalism of different kinds continues to gain momentum.

If you think that moment has past, you don’t yet understand what you’re seeing.