So here we have some first details of the Commission proposal. It is a mix of instruments. And it looks fairly promising - heavy on actual expenditure, not too reliant on wizardry and pumped-up numbers.
Thread:
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
Thread:
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
1/ First, size: We get an MFF proposal roughly where Michel left it off at the beginning of the year - at 1100 bn euros. In addition, there will be 750 bn euros in new borrowing outside the MFF through the new Recovery Instrument, 500 bn of which will be EU expenditure.
2/ This is massive. EU does classic deficit spending for the first time. The new spending will primarily (310 bn) happen through a "Recovery and Resilience Facility", an instrument that sounds like it is mainly co-financing national recovery plans in a BICC-style setup.
3/ 110 bn will go to financing projects in member states through other EU budget instruments (Just Transition Fund, cohesion policy, agriculture policy). The rest will go to the EIB wizards to be leveraged as support for companies e.g. in a new Solvency Support Instrument.
4/ This seems like a good approach: We have the normal MFF for the long run and a new pool of resources to be spent specifically on the recovery, even though some areas seem to make more sense than others at first sight.
5/ On top of the new spending, there will be 250 bn in available loans under the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Will be interesting to see which countries will make use of this.
6/ The EU bonds will be repaid over a long time horizon between 2028 and 2058. This crucially means we have no clue who will repay how much the EU's new debt in the end. Over 38 years, GNI shares can shift quite dramatically - and so can the revenue structure of the EU budget.
7/ In sum, this seems like a really promising move. We can safely say that the EU graduates to a small-but-serious macro player today. Now, expect fights over all aspects of both the Recovery Fund and the MFF. But the principle of EU borrowing for EU spending is there now.
