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Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
@Dr_D_Robertson
May 27, 2020 • 20 tweets • 13 min read • Read on X
Tomorrow will see the review of the UK's COVID status Image
We are currently in level 4. The newly formed Joint Biosecurity Centre is now responsible for advising on whether we should move to level 3 and move to Step 2 and re-open schools on 1 June Image
We have been told that this is being calculated according to this formula Image
However, we have also been told that there are five tests for adjusting the lockdown (see this story for how 'that overwhelms the NHS' appears to have been added to the test dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8… ) Image
In order to prevent a resurgence of COVID-19, according to @WHO we need to be able to 'detect, test, isolate & treat every case & trace every contact'. Image
I am of the opinion that the UK has not yet demonstrated its ability to detect, test, and isolate every case and to trace every contact. I view it as reckless to open schools on 1 June without this proven capability in place.
If the Joint Biosecurity Centre recommends reduction of the UK's COVID status to level 3 and members of #SAGE do not agree with this assessment, I call on them jointly or collectively to make a statement saying that they do not agree with this assessment.
Without a clear message from #SAGE and the other learned societies, there is a risk that scientific advice in this country becomes irrevocably politicised @CMO_England @uksciencechief @royalsociety @FPH @AoMRC
@JeremyFarrar @neil_ferguson @GrahamMedley @d_spiegel
@richardhorton1
The PM's official spokesman has now directly tied the PM's decision to #SAGE. If SAGE's view is that schools etc. should not re-open given the current testing regime and infection levels, they must say so, otherwise they will be blamed for the decision. Image
Number 3 has changed Image
Statement from @LSHTM Professor John Edmunds of #SAGE Image
Statement from @JeremyFarrar, director of the @wellcometrust and a member of #SAGE
Statement from @LSHTM @cmmid_lshtm Professor Graham Medley of #SAGE
Statement from @JeremyFarrar, director of the @wellcometrust and a member of #SAGE
Statement from Professor Graham Medley of @LSHTM @cmmid_lshtm and a member of #SAGE
Statement from Professor Peter Horby of @UniofOxford and a member of #SAGE and chair of #NERVTAG
Statement by Professor Robert West of @ucl and a member of #SAGE SPI-B subgroup
Statement from Professor Calum Semple of @LivUni and a member of #SAGE Image

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More from @Dr_D_Robertson

Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
Jul 18
The UK Covid Public Inquiry has published its first Report, on Resilience and Preparedness. It is the most urgent report, as we are still ill-prepared for the next pandemic.

🧵
This is the first of many reports, each reviewing a specific area, including healthcare systems; test, trace, and isolate; and the economic response to the pandemic.

The Module 1 Report sets out nine significant flaws from the Covid-19 pandemic: Image
The Report suggests 10 recommendations: Image
Read 11 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
Jun 9, 2023
Data thread from today's @IndependentSage briefing including a discussion on sick pay, the topic of today's discussion. 🧵 Image
Cases and tests. Relatively low.
Caveat that the ONS Covid infection survey has been paused ImageImageImageImage
Hospital admissions. Trend not upward.
Caveat that testing has changed in hospital. ImageImageImageImage
Read 14 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
Apr 21, 2023
Covid data presentation for the @IndependentSage briefing on 21 April 2023 🧵 Image
Testing has changed from 1 April 2023, so it is difficult to compare before and after this date.
gov.uk/government/new…
The ONS survey has been 'paused', so we can look at the (less recent, less representative) data on PCR positivity

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testin… ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
Apr 20, 2023
Alright. Another maths thread. And why it's non-trivial to ask exam questions.
🧵
OK. So the 'exam question' is:

"Inflation is currently 10%. If inflation halves, how much will a £1 pint of milk cost".

Sounds easy. It's not. It's ambiguous. It's not a good question. Unless it's designed to be a bad question. In which case it's a good question.
1. It talks about 'inflation'. But *what* inflation? At the moment, we have overall inflation at roughly 10% but inflation of food at roughly 20%. So is the overall inflation rate the same as the inflation rate for milk? It's not clear. Bad question.
Read 9 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
Mar 24, 2023
Data thread from today's @IndependentSage briefing. 🧵
First, the @ONS Covid Infection Survey is being paused, and @CovidGenomicsUK is being retired. This will have implications for data reliability and availability going forward.
.@UKHSA / @ONS announcement
gov.uk/government/new…
Read 17 tweets
Dr Duncan Robertson Profile picture
Mar 20, 2023
OK, I'm going to write a response to this maths problem, published in @DailyMailUK, that has caused a lot of comment, some thinking the answer is 1 and some thinking the answer is 9.

A thread. 🧵

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
So, what answer is correct? Is it 1 or is it 9?

Many of us would go straight to the answer 1. That's because we know (or our children know, and have taught us), that there is a 'rule' for how you deal with the order of doing the calculation - do you do + first or ÷, for example?
Enter BIDMAS (or BODMAS).

"It stands for Brackets, Indices [or Order], Division, Multiplication, Addition and Subtraction."

That's the conventional order. Forget about indices [or order] for now - that's not important for this one.
bbc.co.uk/bitesize/topic…
Read 12 tweets

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