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Remember that huge hydroxychloroquine study in the Lancet?

The one that found that HCQ was dangerous and halted trials across the world?

Turns out at least some of the data is dodgy
More specifically...
I should point out here - they say they have data from 4 Australian hospitals and 63 deaths

EVEN TODAY this is not possible unless they have data from NSW AND Victoria, and both states report that they didn't send any data through

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Health "Physical Isolation" Nerd
@GidMK
Lots of people are still comparing the COVID-19 death rate with influenza ("it's only as deadly as the flu!")

This is very misleading

If you compare apples to apples, COVID-19 is MUCH deadlier than the flu
The figure that most people use when talking about the death rate of influenza is 0.1-0.2% (i.e. 1 to 2 deaths per 1,000 cases of flu)

They then say that the lower estimates of COVID-19 fatality rate are similar, so it's comparable

But they really aren't
The 0.1-0.2% figure for influenza is one estimate of the CASE fatality rate - i.e. the number of deaths divided by confirmed cases

The CFR for influenza varies significantly, but is around 1-40 deaths per 1,000 people infected (0.1-4%)
Read 14 tweets
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Health "Physical Isolation" Nerd
@GidMK
If you consider yourself apolitical after studying epidemiology, you've missed some of the key points and should have another look at the subject #epitwitter
As a start, the originaly 2005 Marmot report is eye-opening

"Social factors [are] at the root of much of these inequalities in health"

who.int/social_determi…
The boring fact is that society is unequal and that this impacts public health. The corollary to this is that, if you want to improve health, you have to improve society

There is no apolitical epidemiology
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Health "Physical Isolation" Nerd
@GidMK
NEW TODAY

@LeaMerone and I have updated our systematic review/meta-analysis of the infection-fatality rates of COVID-19

New point-estimate is 0.64% (0.5-0.78%)

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Some notes: we have tried to respond to every criticism raised so far, but it's challenging to get to everything. It will be updated again!
I think it's also VERY important to recognize that this point estimate is really just a "best guess"

What we're seeing is not unexpected DIFFERENT PLACES HAVE DIFFERENT IFRs
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