Cummings retro-edit of his blog perfectly timed to coincide with @SenTomCotton mainstreaming the "Wuhan Lab Theory" - the global right want to use this pandemic for a Cold War on China... 1/ My column: newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
2/ The Wuhan Lab story was pushed into the mainstream by a "member of Cobra" and a UK government minister (in the Mail) 10 days before US intel agencies started briefing their own media... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
4/ The UK govt has repeatedly squashed the Wuhan Lab story. I don't know whether they have any evidence for it but as Bannon says Five Eyes and others are looking at it - but if they do, you can bet it will be the Gulf of Tonkin, v convenient for Trump's election strategy...
5/ Bannon, Trump, Cotton, the US right are determined a) to make the election about confronting China; b) to really confront China - because it's in China's interest for globalisation to continue, while their project is "Westphalian"... thewirechina.com/2020/05/24/ste…
5/ The left, too, should be seriously critical of the CCP: here's why #ClearBrightFuture is not on sale in Beijing...
6/ But as I argue here: any Western strategy to contain China by destroying its economy will lead not just to military confrontation - but to a continental-scale Fallujah. The west won't pick up the pieces, the pieces will pick up the pieces...newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
7/ The British political debate is muted on China. The Tory party is split because the City just wants to keep taking the money, same as with Saudi; Labour wary of all geopolitics; military/security rightly focused on Russia... but... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
8/ It's time to activate calm, responsible debate: defend democracy in HK, smart reindustrialisation of UK/Europe, identify and counter (democratically) China's soft power moves here - but reject Bannon's warmongering. newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
9/ If you have time, read the 57-page propaganda playbook of the GOP on China... because it's coming here: link in the article... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
9/ While we are here, if anyone wants a free copy of Live Working or Die Fighting in Chinese, I've just put it on Academia... it's the job of the Chinese people to build an alternative to the CCP - not Bannon! academia.edu/attachments/63…
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In the name of public service, and as ex-economics editor of BBC Newsnight, I offer to do a zoom call, tonight, with any Labour MP who wants to understand why bond markets do not "fall into line" with governments. 1/
2/ Because pension funds have moved from defined benefits to payouts dependent on the stock market, they don't need to hold so much government debt (orange bit) ...a third is now held by foreign banks (blue bit) ... the red bit by the Bank of England...
3/ And because HMT favours issuing long-dated bonds, and because the UK suffers unique stresses due to decades of privatisation, ill health and ageing, (and Truss), our borrowing costs are an outlier...
I understand MPs' frustration with @Keir_Starmer speech, on top of election losses, but please look rationally at the risks we are running. Here's a visual guide... let me talk through it...🧵1/~
2/ In the left column are all potential options from MPs' discontent with Starmer. I am discontented too, and want more radical policies... I doubt a Streeting challenge would rattle the markets badly - though it risks doing so simply from the law of unintended consequences...
3/ Any soft-left/Burnham challenge that did not have its programme fiscally watertight risks setting off the whole cascade in this chart *even before it succeeds*...
I don't want Keir to resign - nor do I want him to set a timetable for resigning - I want the Labour Party to diagnose its own problems and the wider fragmenting political landscape and face facts: working class people are in a zero sum game and we need to be on their side ... 1/
2/ This is not the end of UK social democracy but it has to build a broader coalition to resist the extremism of the right and the new Islamist sectarianism. Calling them what they are would be a start!
3/ the essential formula has to be left on the economy, traditional on defence, crime and foreign policy. I stood for selection 3x on those politics and was twice blocked by the "process" ...
Four moves just happened in the US-Iran battle: Trump leaks peace conditions; Iran makes extreme counter-demands; Trump threatens to destroy energy plants; Iran threatens to destroy Gulf desalination plants... this is "escalate to de-escalate"... 1/
2/ analysis: First off, Trump is explicitly threatening a war crime; the UK should have no part in that. Iran's threat is also criminal. Second - Israel seems absent from the exchange. Third: Iran's maximalist demands are actually a plea for inclusion in a rules based order -
3/ If either escalation threat were carried out we would see an epic refugee and humanitarian crisis: Southern Caucasus, Iraq, Türkiye,Turkmenistan all vulnerable
The British government is not "confused" or unclear - it's been crystal clear it did not take part in the US/Israeli attack on Iran because there is no legal basis to do so; in addition its aims are ill defined... 1/ so Labour MPs need to get real...
2/ We're under political attack from a Tory party that would have willingly breached the UN Charter. We're sticking by the Charter - everything we've done so far is lawful under Article 51...
3/ We're also under attack from the Greens who want to leave NATO, & Plaid and the SNP who want to dismember the United Kingdom. You were elected as social democrats, act like one: get behind the government and deliver a massive majority for strong, lawful conduct during this war
As Morgan McSweeney resigns - here's some basic politics for any member of the Labour Party: 1/ We cannot have a leadership contest now. Why? Because the bond market is a "daily referendum on UK political stability"...the right wing press baying for Keir to resign know this ...
2/ The rat pack of podcasters and YouTubers will have a field day stoking up chaos... a doom loop of bad headlines and soaring bond yields. Therefore Keir Starmer has to remain PM. Let's have a clear report from the ISC - and it should not be difficult to get to the point...
3/ ... did the DV process throw up any problems with Mandelson? Did the security services warn anyone? Once we have that information there is a story to tell about what went wrong ...