I keep being asked, will there be a deal? Entirely comes down to whether Johnson in September wants to claim another victory in the style of the Northern Ireland protocol, or to be the PM who said no deal to the EU.
The negotiations are largely irrelevant to this decision.
The negotiations are largely irrelevant to this decision.
Package it up as you like, but for there to be a UK-EU trade deal this year the UK will have to follow most of the EU text. But not all of it. We can choose some absolute red lines and / or possibly key offensive interests.
Same applies to a US trade deal.
Same applies to a US trade deal.
Most important part of a trade negotiation is that with your own side about your priorities. On the basis of that you conclude with the other side. Yelling at the other side for being unfair is just part of the negotiation with yourself, has nothing to do with the other party.
For public consumption purposes either Johnson 'held firm' or 'forced EU concessions' in September. Realistically he decided deal or no-deal. Too early to know which way he'll turn. But claiming victory and handling the detail later will probably be easier.
