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Update on Miner Capitulation. So this has been one of the most abnormal price moves I've seen considering the difficulty pressure the miners have been experiencing since the halving. IMHO, this is very bullish for the incoming price action once this epoch is complete. Post 1
In the past 24 hours, it appears the miners have been able to keep pace with the 10 minute block reward flow. This is the first time we've seen that happen in the current Epoch. If that continues to persist (that we remain 180 blocks behind until the next adjustment), Post 2
then I think the potential for a final price drop opportunity is diminished. Could it still happen - of course. But as far as waiting around for it, probably not the best idea. A simple DCA approach for free cash flow waiting on the sidelines is likely the best approach. Post 3
So what's potentially causing this difference? Well, there's not nearly enough evidence at this point to prove that there is a difference, but if there is, here's my guess. ..Post 4
First and foremost, it appears GBTC is a major buyer in the market place right now. Attached is a tweet addressing the sheer volume that's soaking up more BTC than the existing reward flow.
Additionally, I think some of the bans on CNY companies and CNY currency moves have potentially caused a buying interest and hedge in BTC. Not much evidence for this, and it's only a theory. Next, I think there are some interesting BTC charts depending on where you sit in
the world. For example, if you live in Turkey, this is what the Bitcoin to Turkish Lira chart looks like right now. A much more bullish chart pattern (from a technical analysis point of view). This isn't the only country seeing a very bullish chart like this.
Finally (and this is probably the biggest factor along with the GBTC buying), I think the March macro liquidity event caused a significant amount of miners to lose a significant amount of BTC treasury on their balance sheet to sustain operations while the price was down.
That drain from their accounts has already removed a significant portion of the selling pressure I would have expected to see right now.
So in conclusion:
1. Hashing rates have held for the last 24 hours (first time we've seen that since halving)
2. I expect a very bullish price once this epoch completes (5 June)
3. The best approach right now is to probably DCA
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