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I'm reading through the released SAGE minutes from Feb/March & oh wow- some of the conclusions they reached were way off. 8th SAGE meeting: 'When there is sustained transmission in the UK, contact tracing will no longer be useful.'…
7th SAGE meeting: 'SAGE should continue to work on the assumption that China will be UNABLE to contain the epidemic.' 'SAGE concluded that neither travel restrictions within the UK nor prevention of mass gatherings would be effective in limiting transmission.'
14th SAGE meeting- March 10th : 'the UK is considered to be 4-5 weeks behind Italy but on a similar curve (6-8 weeks behind if interventions are applied)'.
'SAGE noted that public gatherings pose a relatively low but not zero public risk.'
15th SAGE meeting- March 13: 'SAGE was unanimous that measures seeking to completely suppress spread of COVID-19 will cause a second peak.' 'Community testing is ending today.' 'The science suggests household isolation...of the elderly and vulnerable should be implemented soon.'
16th SAGE meeting: 'The objective is to avoid critical cases exceeding NHS intensive care and other respiratory support bed capacity.'
Also worth noting how devolved nations (Scotland, Wales, N. Ireland) were not integrated into SAGE in Feb/March so had no real insights into decisions --> Scotland only set up its advisory group on 30th March. Publishes full membership & minutes just days after meetings.
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