Professor & Chair of Global Public Health, Edinburgh Uni. Director of @GlobalHealthGP. Certified Level 3 Personal Trainer. Author of 'Preventable'. Views own.
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Mar 23, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
My latest column theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Was the response by government proportionate? In these debates, there’s a clear survival bias. Those who can ask these questions survived. Those who died don’t have a chance to weigh in on whether government intervention was sufficient, or whether their deaths were preventable.
Mar 3, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
The Telegraph coverage misses the basic fact every country faced with COVID: a wave of cases meant a wave of hospitalisations then a wave of deaths. Emergency lockdowns happened when health services were breaking. Bc of too many cases (1/4) ->
If health services break then excess mortality jumps from all causes: heart attacks to wheezing children. The scientific challenge of COVID was reducing the link between cases to hospitalisation to deaths. Vaccines & antivirals did this which is why govts could open up (2/4) ->
Mar 1, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Reflection: There was a huge divide btwn what experts/advisors said & what UK govt often did. Experts/science advisors looked at latest data & presented advice. Ministers looked at publicity angle & some looked at how to make money for friends through PPE/testing contracts.
Mass Testing was the best early path to avoid lockdown & suppress COVID- but this message got lost in a binary ‘shutdown or nothing’. This wasn’t what most scientists were saying in 2020. Lockdown was a late & chaotic emergency button from lack of prep. mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/p…
Feb 8, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
In the coming months you’re likely to hear about H5N1 bird flu more & more. The signals from various countries are concerning.
Get your info from trusted sources-
Alongside data-driven analysis & facts, there will also be a rise in misinformation & false news.
H5N1 avian flu is a serious disease &: the WHO estimated the fatality rate around 60%. If it does manage to spread human-to-human (instead of just bird to human), it has high pandemic potential. This is why surveillance & preparation have increased in many regions of the world.
Feb 6, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
If you want to get more fit or be more active -> you don’t have to run a marathon or go from 0 to super-athlete. It can be as simple as a daily walk which becomes a part-jog (or jig…) or a 30 min cycle at the gym or - doing a YouTube HIIT. Something is better than nothing.
My approach to fitness has evolved to be about functionality -> how can I keep my mind & body in a state that lets me do all the things that I both need to do and want to do. Harder with ageing & a heavy workload. But weight-lifting, getting heart rate up & being consistent help.
Jan 26, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Does COVID-19 still constitute a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)? As the WHO Expert Committee debates this, if they follow the strict definition of a PHEIC, I don't think it does. The definition focuses on 3 aspects -> (1/n)
1. Sudden or unusual or unexpected event 2. Potential for international spread 3. International coordination/response necessary. Clearly COVID-19 met all of this 3 years back when declared a PHEIC. But now... (2/n)
Jan 17, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Thread: Why are we so sick this winter in Britain? Over the past two weeks I’ve reached out to colleagues in the NHS- whether GPs, A&E nurses or ICU consultants- to ask this question (1/x)
What I’ve heard is that the actual disease burden is bad especially given the cold weather and more indoor mixing, but not unprecedented. COVID-19 has layered on top of the usual mix of respiratory illnesses such as flu, RSV, and Strep A that strain the health services in winter.
My latest column on the most worrying & neglected issue facing the British economy theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
-> the # of working-age adults who are “economically inactive” – meaning they are neither employed nor looking for work – is ⬆️because of long-term sickness. Long-term sickness is being driven by two key factors: long Covid and people off sick waiting for NHS care.
Jun 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Happy Mon! Guess what? @Wimbledon 🎾 starts today. Which players are you following? Serena Williams, Rafa Nadal & Andy Murray all playing. Did you know Serena named her dog Rafa?
Also appreciate this thoughtful review of Preventable in @ForeignPolicy by David Adler foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/26/cor…
Jun 22, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
As part of our commitment to the student community at Edinburgh, we @GlobalHealthGP hosted an in-person workshop sharing latest research on COVID 🧵
First talk on Long COVID & how various health systems are dealing with a new disease by Dr Cervantee Wild
Jun 22, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Recent pre-print on COVID re-infections basically says that re-infection (having COVID twice) is worse than once. So yes, a disease to try to avoid. Altho given over 90% ppl estimated to have had COVID at least once in UK, obviously hard to avoid. Even for those being cautious.
I’m concerned about the Autumn/Winter- we know immunity from vaccine/infection wanes. Another wave in winter looks likely. Imho omicron-specific boosters should be rolled out by age/health status.
Jun 17, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Happy Fri! ☀️ Likely jump in infections as we head into a BA.4/BA.5 wave- what does this mean & how can you best protect yourself? And how to get balance btwn reducing risk of getting COVID & living/interacting in the way you’d like to?theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
In terms of game-changers on the horizon: a next generation vaccine that offers protection from infection (even for 6 months/year) would make a massive difference to reducing waves & treatments for Long COVID.
Oct 29, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
There seems to be complacency & fatigue at COVID in the U.K. which is completely different to the reality in hospitals. My colleague @kennethbaillie is understated & careful in his messaging and look at what he’s telling us from inside a hospital 👇🏼 (1/n)
Unlike a year back we now have safe & effective vaccines, ample testing & know how to mitigate transmission with getting outside, ventilation & face coverings. But we have to use these tools to keep society & businesses open & COVID under control.
Aug 30, 2021 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Andy Murray just broke Tsitsipas 😱🎉🎉🎉#USOpen
Murray now up with a double break in the first set.
Aug 3, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Scotland moves to 'Beyond 0' on 9 August. Some measures remain in place: face coverings indoors, test/trace/isolate (isolate if test positive, contacts can be released from isolation with double vax & neg PCR test), home working when possible, & local outbreak response.
Schools will retain same mitigations for start of school year (for 6 weeks & then reviewed) including ventilation & CO2 monitors. But full bubbles no longer asked to isolate- more targeted approach to avoid disruption. Caution due to mixing of large groups of unvaccinated kids.
Jun 23, 2021 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Seeing lots of unhelpful panic over today’s numbers. Obviously caution needed but most important marker is whether link between cases and moderate to severe disease being broken. This is a different wave than previous ones. We are in new territory.
More here. I’m very concerned about South Asia, Latin America & Sub-Saharan Africa now. They’re in crisis and serious trouble. Not enough vaccines, not enough oxygen & hospital beds & no economic support for people to stay home.
Happy Mon!☀️Instead of arguing about lockdown (it’s been a harsh year), we need to prepare for future pandemics: stop spillover of viruses from animals to humans, ⬆️ vaccine manufacturing capacity globally & prepare to move from sequencing to jabs in arms within a few months.
Lockdowns have been a last resort measure to keep health services from collapsing. No one wants restrictions given the high social & economic cost they carry. So how do we prepare for future pandemics so we don't need lockdown/release cycles, like they've been used in the West?
Mar 18, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Vaccines are our best route out of restrictions & can do the heavy lifting. Lockdowns are caused bc of the hospitalisation rate of this virus & the large # of susceptible people -> leads to exponential growth in cases & stretched health services. Vaccines address both. (thread)
Israel is a glimpse of the future & how to lift restrictions sustainably & let people mix -> vaccinate about 85% of over-16 population, start vaccinating children when approval given & build up testing (PCR, lateral flow & wastewater) to keep on top of outbreaks that emerge.
Feb 25, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
If it's raining outside but modelling tells you it's sunny, do you believe what you can see and the clear data? Triangulation of modelling, observational data, & common sense is vital. More complex doesn't mean more accurate. bmj.com/content/369/bm…
If you have very few people testing positive, positivity is <0.5%, genetic sequencing shows that 1st strains were eliminated, what does this tell you about level of COVID? Or believe complex, untransparent mathematical models w/ predetermined assumptions? heraldscotland.com/news/18931916.…
Jan 18, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Scientists investigating whether it's possible to be re-infected with a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 in S. Africa. Antibodies from previous infection didn't recognise new variant in 21/44 cases but 🤞 T-cells might. Precarious position & points towards need for max suppression.
Good news: we know how to control COVID. Countries have done it. We need: restrictions until #s low & buy-in of population that there's a plan, robust test/trace/isolate, and very tight border restrictions. Clear COVID, open domestic economy fully & firefight as outbreaks arise.
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