I finally had time to pore over today's personal income report a bit more, and here's my take: it shows a high risk of a crisis in the late summer if Congress doesn't step up with more aid 1/
The biggest decline in absolute terms came in wage and salary income, which fell 11% between Feb. and April. However, about 40% of that decline was made up by increased unemployment benefits 2/
And those benefits have expanded substantially, as states work off the backlog of cases: $49 billion in April, $86 billion in May through the 27th. So UI has been a major cushion. However, expanded benefits expire July 31 3/
Also, in April state and local budget woes just beginning to bite: government wages and salaries down only 3%. But that will get much worse soon unless there's large-scale federal aid 4/
Meanwhile, proprietors' income — which is where small business falls — took a huge hit, declining 19.5% Fed-April. The paycheck protection program, despite terrible implementation, surely helped. But PPP's grace period for turning loans into grants only 8 weeks 5/
So here's what worries me: just 2 months from now, sharp cut in aid to unemployed, alongside mass layoffs of teachers and firefighters, plus small businesses folding and/or laying off their employees 6/
Call it the glums of August, although some of it may happen sooner. Completely unnecessary; won't happen if the Senate passes something like the recent House bill. But right now we're set for a gratuitous late-summer crisis 7/
