May 30th 2020,
3 tweets,
1 min read
Im a professional microbiologist.
Let me tell you the problem with "R is 0.7" they dont tell you:
R<1 just means 10 people will only infect 7 others so the outbreak wont double.
But if 60million *go outside*, 10,000 current new cases *every day* will become 17,000, then 29,000
Let me tell you the problem with "R is 0.7" they dont tell you:
R<1 just means 10 people will only infect 7 others so the outbreak wont double.
But if 60million *go outside*, 10,000 current new cases *every day* will become 17,000, then 29,000
What they don't say is the 10,000 *new cases* every day reported by ONS are being infected *during lockdown* (because we didnt do it right).
They can infect others for 5-10 days before they recover (longer if severe infection). Anyone they infect can infect others 1-2 days later
They can infect others for 5-10 days before they recover (longer if severe infection). Anyone they infect can infect others 1-2 days later
Nobody tells the virus "you can only infect 0.7 people from each new case, your R reduced".
The virus is *still the same virus* & *just as infectious as ever*.
Its only the *apparent* value of R that has been suppressed by keeping us all isolated.
The second we go outside, R=5.7
The virus is *still the same virus* & *just as infectious as ever*.
Its only the *apparent* value of R that has been suppressed by keeping us all isolated.
The second we go outside, R=5.7
