Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NoDealBrexit

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𝐁𝐫𝐞𝐱𝐒𝐭 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐑𝐞 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲
This thread is entirely 2018 analysis and as unbiased as I can make it. Collated as I find a lack of signposts to the raw analysis in the media and political discourse, which are high on spin low on facts. Hopefully this will be helpful.
Tetlow G., Alex Stojanovic A. (2018). Understanding the economic impact of Brexit. 𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑑𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑑𝑒 π‘“π‘œπ‘Ÿ πΊπ‘œπ‘£π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘›π‘šπ‘’π‘›π‘‘. This report attempts to make clear the assumptions that different studies have made, what evidence they have to support them. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
Gudgin G., Coutts K., Gibson N., Buchanan J. (2018) The macro-economic impact of Brexit: using the CBR macro-economic model of the UK economy (UKMOD)π½π‘œπ‘’π‘Ÿπ‘›π‘Žπ‘™ π‘œπ‘“ 𝑆𝑒𝑙𝑓-πΊπ‘œπ‘£π‘’π‘Ÿπ‘›π‘Žπ‘›π‘π‘’ π‘Žπ‘›π‘‘ π‘€π‘Žπ‘›π‘Žπ‘”π‘’π‘šπ‘’π‘›π‘‘ πΈπ‘π‘œπ‘›π‘œπ‘šπ‘–π‘π‘  2:7-49
Read 26 tweets
#BrexitChaos - thread: need for definitions:

#NoDeal #nodealbrexit means crashing out: no arrangements with the #EU or other member states, no transition period. Means losing all existing trade deals & years of global negociations
#WTO β‰  trade deal (look it up!) 1/9
@theresa_may #WithdrawalAgreement is the framework for a future #UK #EU future relationship. Allows for an orderly #Brexit with transition period, but leaves many issues to resolve, trade deals and regulations to negotiate, which will take many years and be costly. No "dividend"!
It is possible to #StopBrexit and #Remain. This means staying in the #EU with all current benefits, reciprocal rights and protections, free trade and movement for goods, services and people within the EU. To do this, Govt must #RevokeA50 (Article 50=notice given to #Leave 3/9
Read 10 tweets
We'll be live tweeting from BBC Any Questions for the next hour or so.
It's been a busy week on the Brexit front, so it promises to be interesting.
Panel includes:
@Andrew_Adonis @Juergen_Maier @JennyChapman & Wokingham MP @johnredwood
#bbcaq #anyquestions
The question on everyone's lips with #brexit "was this really what you envisaged you were going to get"
Once again they say there was a very strong instruction to Parliament - the minority was a tiny percentage - this can't be seen as a strong instruction.
Read 42 tweets

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Not sure if the WA will be passed? EU’s Contingency Action Plan from earlier this week details how the EU is preparing for #NoDealBrexit. Covers unilateral contingency measures to be adopted in the next months. /1
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…
They will not replicate benefits of EU membership, will be temporary (ending in 2019) and can be revoked unilaterally by the EU. Also, will not remedy delays that could have been avoided by timely action taken by the relevant stakeholders (states and businesses) /2
Strong focus on the fact that contingency measures should not put EU companies at a disadvantage compared to UK competitors and should not compensate companies that have not taken the necessary steps to prepare (while their competitors have) /3
Read 13 tweets
Waiting for the start of the Brexit What's The Deal event at Bracknell Open Learning Centre organised by Berkshire for Europe.
We'll be live tweeting the event, so watch this space.
If you are at the event, use the hashtag #WhatsTheDealBracknell on social media.
It promises to be an interesting evening, particularly with the news this afternoon that Railways Minister @JoJohnsonUK has resigned from the government and spoken out in favour of a #PeoplesVote on Brexit rather than the choice of no deal or a bad deal.
Our speakers this evening are:
Bracknell MP @DrPhillipLeeMP who was one of the early MPs to resign their ministerial post over Brexit (for the right reasons)
Read 69 tweets
We all know now that #VoteLeaveBrokeTheLaw. We all know that Arron Banks has been referred to the NCA for investigation, after @MetPoliceUK declined to look into the @ElectoralCommUK's evidence. MPs are "calling for a pause" in #Brexit.

theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/n… /1
Unless EU-27 agree to an extension of the two-year #Article50 period, the UK leaves the EU on 29th March 2019. Theresa May clearly stil hopes for some kind of deal that will keep the City of London happy enough with #Brexit: but #NoDealBrexit is a very real possibility. /2
#NoDealBrexit is disastrous, but the UK is woefully unprepared for the massive changes to ensue with any kind of #Brexit: the Tories have treated the Brexit negotiations as a game in which they held all the cards, & in consequence have failed utterly to make any progress. /3
Read 18 tweets
Zero chance UK Home Office could process immigration applications for all the EU citz working in UK by Brexit deadline of Mar’19. #NoDealBrexit
More than 2 million EU cits work in UK. Along with 1000s of non-EU family members. ons.gov.uk/employmentandl…
Home Office is still trialling the beta version of its β€œsettlement” scheme - to give EU citz & family immigration leave to remain under UK rules.
Read 3 tweets
Did 17 Million people really vote for #NoDealBrexit?

Did 17 million people vote to end the Good Friday Agreement?
Did 17 million people vote to strip 1.4 million Brits abroad of their right to live in their own homes? (EU citizenship)
Did 17 million people vote for chaos?
Every time someone suggests that 17 million Brits voted for no-deal. They're saying 17 million Brits voted to intentionally harm the country. They're calling all Brexit voters traitors to the UK. They're insulting the UK itself.
There has to come a day when people in this country come back together as fellow countrymen&women... If that kind of damage gets inflicted on the country, I don't see forgiveness coming any time soon...
Read 3 tweets
I am becoming more sure as every twist of the #Brexit knife happens, that the same mindset that was behind Hitler's policies in Nazi Germany are being subtly or will be openly enacted here upon a #nodealbrexit
Let me unpick this .....
Right from the start of the campaign ~ generated to keep Cameron in power and stave off the 'bastards' sic.Major on the right/UKIP, pure racism was allowed and encouraged in the press. A subtle game was played whereby legit EU citizens were turned into 'illegal migrants. #brexit
Outright lies of Leave.EU and Voteleave were never publically opposed by any MPs ~ and indeed, the *crimes* committed by both organisations are not being investigated by the police,nor Govt declared the ref null & void on what has been uncovered by @carolecadwalla
Read 14 tweets
I went on the dreaded Fakenewsbook yesterday and posted a tweet to encourage people to book onto the coaches.

Boy.

What a glorious reception I got.
One person interacted with my post. A brit in EU27. One person.
I replied to my own post how it was telling that one person reacted to my post... and they are living in a different country.
Read 20 tweets
The 6th list of #Brexitconcerns is building up here: twitter.com/i/moments/1046…

1-5 are linked to at the top of this thread
That thread I made from the IFS report about the impact of Brexit on employment is here:
ICYMI (many did) here's the parliamentary debate on 11th December 2017 on why we should hold a 2nd ref on Brexit which had many MPs speaking sense, incl.
@CarolineLucas & @susanelanjones

#PeoplesVote #FinalSay
Transcript: hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2017-1…
Video: parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/3e…
Read 11 tweets
At #greenerUK #CPC18 fringe, ⁦@michaelgove⁩ in conversation with WWF’s ⁦@TanyaMSteele⁩. Needless to say, the room is creaking at the seams!
First time we’re hearing more detail on PM’s promised #environmentbill. Gove: as well as addressing #AirPollution it will tackle waste & resources to move us towards a #CircularEconomy
At the time of #climatechange Act, people were worried its ambitious targets would harm economic growth - quite the opposite has happened, says Gove #cpc18 #greenerUK
Read 17 tweets
πŸ‘‡People should follow @keatingpatrick who works at Honda and can provide an accurate perspective on #NoDealBrexit and what it means for carmaker supply chains in the U.K. and Europe.

#r4today #Toyota #digbyjoned
@keatingpatrick (Usual disclaimer: views are personal not company)
Read 3 tweets
.@britishineurope PRESS STATEMENT: 'Disgraceful and unacceptable'.

Read our full response to Theresa May's press statement on EU citizens' rights which made no mention of the 1.2 mn British nationals living in the EU 27

…tattafiles.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/tnt20199/_cOfm…

#TheresaMay #NoDealBrexit .
2. 'We heard that we are now at an impasse in the negotiations with the very real threat of a no deal. What we did not hear was one single word about the future of 1.2 million UK nationals living in the EU27.'
3. 'You appear willing to take the UK out of the EU with a no deal and with no thought for your own nationals'
Read 6 tweets
For those of you who do not speak German, a short thread about my piece on dangers of #NoDealBrexit in @TspCausa causa.tagesspiegel.de/politik/auf-de…
Theresa May has always said 'No Deal is better than a bad Deal', but there is a new quality to the No Deal-Talk since #Chequers
The claim that #NoDealBrexit would not be "the end of the word" is a wild understatement. As @anandMenon1 @jdportes and otheres have pointed out it would most likely not mean lots of mini-deals, no deal at all, at least in the short term
Read 10 tweets
After March 2019 if there’s no deal.

"Surcharge-free roaming when you travel to the EU could no longer be guaranteed."

#NoDealBrexit
gov.uk/government/pub…
After March 2019 if there’s no deal.

"Your driving licence may no longer be valid by itself when driving in the EU. If you move to another EU country to live, you may not be able to exchange your licence after the UK has left the EU."

#NoDealBrexit
gov.uk/government/pub…
After March 2019 if there’s no deal.

"If your passport does not meet these criteria, you may be denied entry to any of the Schengen area countries, and you should renew your passport before you travel."

#NoDealBrexit
gov.uk/government/pub…
Read 6 tweets
I am a doctor in the #NHS.
Every scrap of evidence I’ve seen points to total disaster if #NoDealBrexit comes to pass. We must #StopBrexit - here is why. /thread
Thus far I’ve tried to focus solely on the facts, and the facts alone. Informed consent is the bedrock of medicine- I don’t believe anyone knew the consequences of leaving EURATOM or the EMA for example when they voted. Feel free to prove otherwise. /1
It’s not my job to tell people what to do. And I am not. If you still think Leaving with No Deal will be good for the NHS after absorbing all of the above, then that is your decision. You are wrong, but it’s your right to be wrong. /2
Read 18 tweets
1. No deal Brexit would put the lives of @The3Million and @BritishInEurope in the 'firing line'. huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/no-deal-…
2. Good piece by @jdportes highlighting that even if some scrappy citizens' rights deal is agreed in the event of #NoDealBrexit it will be a sticking plaster and not a permanent solution. More negotiations will probably be needed later.
3. Once again the prospect of yet more bureaucratic and political uncertainty for real people is in marked contrast to the airy promises that were made by Vote Leave and the British Govt and EU at the start of the negotiations.
Read 3 tweets
Thread: "#Brexit & #Chequers, the sellout. Dump it, let's move on".
...
I keep hearing "Where is the plan?" and a load of misinformation on #Brexit, pushed on UK media by irrelevant & biased commentators, elevated simply because they are avid Remoaners.
They aim to distract.
1/19
We already knew from those tasked with the negotiations, there had been a definite direction of travel & #Brexit plans were well advanced, prior to #Chequers.

2/19
David Davis & his team had been constantly rebuffed by Number 10, as they tried to pursue a proper #Brexit plan, but they HAD been making progress.

3/19
Read 19 tweets
1/ Medical radioisotopes and β€˜no-deal’ Brexit.

What’s the problem and how will patients be affected?

What will be done to protect these vital NHS services?

Here’s a thread on the issues surrounding a nuclear #NoDealBrexit.
2/ Medical radioisotopes are elements used to diagnose or treat a broad range of diseases. These include cancer, palliative and cardiovascular treatments. Around 1 million patients in the UK each year rely on radioisotopes.
We import ~80% and are unable to be self-sufficient.
3/ The most common element used is Technetium-99m (99mTc).

Most medical radioisotopes are imported from Belgium, France and the Netherlands. The UK has no research reactors to produce 99mTc, or its parent element molybdenum-99 (99Mo).

99mTc has a half-life of ~6 hours.
Read 22 tweets
This is basically just a statement of what we know about #NoDealBrexit. Only in the last two paragraphs so we get anything about Labour’s vision. /1 theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
And despite the criticism of the Tory approach, there is precious little new or inspiring of confidence here. /2
What are UK-EU β€œcommon institutions” and why should the EU have the expense and bother of these just to satisfy a leaving state? /3
Read 4 tweets
Why do we need a #PeoplesVote? Because Northern Ireland got one.

Before the Good Friday Agreement was signed, they had a referendum where everyone in Northern Ireland got a copy of the agreement. They could see what they were voting for in black&white. All Brits deserve that too
Whether it's the Chequers Deal the government's proposing, or a #NoDealBrexit, it would be a complete failure of British Democracy to allow such a fundamental change to the country based on a 4% margin, without letting people see the deal first.
Read 3 tweets

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