So at Friday’s press conference I asked about where we are on this chart - this slide showing us moving from 4 to 3 on the “Covid Alert System” assessed by the “Joint Biosecurity Centre” was edited by Number 10 in to the middle of the PM’s address to the nation on May 10th... 
Foreign Secretary just told Sophy Ridge that “we are transitioning from 4 to 3...” but that wasn’t the answer I got on Friday, despite specifically asking whether we are at 4 or 3 or somewhere between 3 and 4... Government’s plan asserts JBC responsible for setting alert level
On a few occasions at the press conference since a slide clearly showing the Covid Alert level at 4, along with words such as “we are beginning careful steps to take us to level 3”...
Lobby was told we were at 4 on Friday...
Lobby was told we were at 4 on Friday...
Separately the DHSC has published this on the “Risk Level”
“The risk to the UK has been raised to high” which though it seems consistent the Covid Alert level being at 4, is a different thing which has been set since March, and reaffirmed yesterday at this level.
“The risk to the UK has been raised to high” which though it seems consistent the Covid Alert level being at 4, is a different thing which has been set since March, and reaffirmed yesterday at this level.
Foreign Secretary is now making “transition” point to Marr...
Point here is - that Joint Biosecurity Centre was supposed independently and objectively to assess whether the level is “4” or “3” as the determining factor as to whether there should be 4 or 3 - “gradual relaxing”
Point here is - that Joint Biosecurity Centre was supposed independently and objectively to assess whether the level is “4” or “3” as the determining factor as to whether there should be 4 or 3 - “gradual relaxing”
From the Government’s published “Our plan to rebuild” 11/5/20:
Step Two adjustments (eg partial school opening)
“MUST be warranted by the current alert level”...
Second step “no earlier” than June 1 subject to these conditions being satisfied...
Step Two adjustments (eg partial school opening)
“MUST be warranted by the current alert level”...
Second step “no earlier” than June 1 subject to these conditions being satisfied...
“I know that we can use this plan to get us through the next.
And if we can’t do it by those dates, and IF the alert level won’t allow it, we will simply wait and go on until we have got it right...”
- the PM at his address 10/5 to the nation introducing the Covid Alert Level...
And if we can’t do it by those dates, and IF the alert level won’t allow it, we will simply wait and go on until we have got it right...”
- the PM at his address 10/5 to the nation introducing the Covid Alert Level...
“if the alert level allows it” reasonably seen at time as ref to alert level being lowered to 3, which it was not, and has not been, *despite the PM replying to @Simon4NDorset Cummings question at Liaison Comm Wednesday: they would meet Thursday to decide a move to Level 3:
So pretty clear that alongside self assessment of the “5 tests”, planned June 1st move [“no earlier”] to Step 2 easing schools etc was conditional on Covid Alert level “allowing it”, and PM linked that to meaning lower to 3, which didn’t then happen, despite planned meeting...
...questions:
Why havent Government published to public its Covid Alert level?
What was decided at meeting to consider Alert Level held Thursday, as indicated by PM on Wednesday and who decided?
Are “Step 2” easing policy dates (eg Jun 1) no longer conditional on Alert level?
Why havent Government published to public its Covid Alert level?
What was decided at meeting to consider Alert Level held Thursday, as indicated by PM on Wednesday and who decided?
Are “Step 2” easing policy dates (eg Jun 1) no longer conditional on Alert level?
important point - did the Joint Biosecurity Centre consider the case for a move to Alert level 3 and decide against it...?
Also following on from what Powis said it me, and Raab to Marr: is the JBC actually functioning now, or is it under development?
Also following on from what Powis said it me, and Raab to Marr: is the JBC actually functioning now, or is it under development?
To be very clear - I mean edited here in TV sense - ie video edited on top of picture of him talking at time (ie the point I was making was that it was at the time emphasised), not that it has been retrospectively edited to change meaning, as a couple of responders below suggest
“The alert level is changing. We are still at level 4 but we are transitioning to 3” says Cabinet minister Jenrick when asked about the PM’s quote above...
There’s some interesting use of the present participle there describing “level 3”. Actual present tense is level 4.
There’s some interesting use of the present participle there describing “level 3”. Actual present tense is level 4.
Health Sec asked if Joint Biosecurity Centre exists right now..
“We are getting it stood up... its being formulated, being pulled together”...
still not entirely clear what happened on Thursday, as anticipated on Wednesday by PM at Liaison, around decision not to move to Level 3
“We are getting it stood up... its being formulated, being pulled together”...
still not entirely clear what happened on Thursday, as anticipated on Wednesday by PM at Liaison, around decision not to move to Level 3
“The JBC still formally needs to come into existence” though he says later saying it would report into the four nations’ CMOs...
“Always clear” that the May 11th “Plan to Rebuild” Government document says that the step 2 changes to the lockdown “must be warranted by the current alert level”...
BLOG incoming on the three meetings including one of all 4 Chief Medical Officers including Professor Whitty, last Thursday, that dashed PM’s “hopes” to lower Covid Alert level from 4 to 3, keeping it at “high” & general concerns over system announced in PM’s address to nation...
Here’s my blog on what dashed PM’s “hopes” (as he said on Wednesday) of lowering Covid Alert Level from 4 to 3 on Thursday.
“clear Government wanted to change it and scientists and CMO didn’t,” I’m told...
Four CMOs had meeting to discuss in morning.
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
“clear Government wanted to change it and scientists and CMO didn’t,” I’m told...
Four CMOs had meeting to discuss in morning.
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
There was also a separate meeting of Number 10 with Wales/ Scotland/ NI leaders on Thursday afternoon:
- “was supposed to be about the alert level, but doctors and scientists had already killed off the move”.
- told that PM & FM “locked horns” on Scottish care home death rate
- “was supposed to be about the alert level, but doctors and scientists had already killed off the move”.
- told that PM & FM “locked horns” on Scottish care home death rate
- Even if the medics had agreed, it is quite plausible that the Scottish and Welsh Governments would have refused to lower the Alert Level.
CDL Gove is expected to make an effort to keep Welsh and Scottish administrations onside...
CDL Gove is expected to make an effort to keep Welsh and Scottish administrations onside...
Govt now argues that easing lockdown is about self-assessed 5 tests, not independently assessed Alert Level, but only said that after CMO refused to sign off lowering level...
BUT Plan to Rebuild said easing “must be warranted” by current alert level
AND PM address this:
BUT Plan to Rebuild said easing “must be warranted” by current alert level
AND PM address this:
All of this puts CSO Vallance words at the Thursday night presser in a slightly different context. He made a point of saying that the number of cases “remain high - its not a low number” and that in some places the transmission rate or R-value remained “close to 1”.
So, said CSO, the UK remained in a “fragile state” and should be prepared to reimpose measures if necessary.
Over the weekend a series of senior members of the Sage advisory committee that is co-chaired by CMO and CSO announced that the easing of lockdown was premature...
Over the weekend a series of senior members of the Sage advisory committee that is co-chaired by CMO and CSO announced that the easing of lockdown was premature...
Other concerns:
- applying the Terror alert system to pandemics, simply might not work, as the Government’s own decisions have a significant direct impact on transmission rates, unlike terrorism.
- applying the Terror alert system to pandemics, simply might not work, as the Government’s own decisions have a significant direct impact on transmission rates, unlike terrorism.
& there are questions about whether this new system is meant to replace the Sage experts, and why exactly that is happening.
Told it was not directly connected, but in the days after the decision to proceed with modest lockdown easing despite not lowering Alert Level, senior members of Sage (Co chaired by CMO and CSO) went public with their concerns on lockdown easing...
General issue of this Alert Level being set for whole UK still causing problems, devolved administrations not yet signed up to Joint Biosecurity Centre.
Number 10 have just told lobby that the decisions on Alert Level now to be made by CMOs.
Number 10 have just told lobby that the decisions on Alert Level now to be made by CMOs.
UPDATE: all four UK Chief Medical Officers agreed that Covid Alert Level should remain at 4 at their meeting last Thursday, against the PM’s expressed “hopes” it would be lowered. More on #bbcnewsSix bbc.co.uk/news/amp/busin…
Govt’s argument is easing of lockdown was modest, incremental, and modelling of measures does not push R above 1... scientists/ medics really stressing that measures could be reapplied quickly, if data goes wrong way.
But Alert system now downplayed
But Alert system now downplayed
CMOs scepticism also puts this extraordinary intervention by civil servants in new light - Directors of Public Health, put out this letter Sunday: “increasingly concerned Govt is misjudging this balancing act & lifting too many restrictions, too quickly” adph.org.uk/2020/05/adph-p…
PM confirms formally “yes the alert level is at 4” in reply to Starmer at PMQs.. and says that Opposition leader “knows perfectly well” that the Alert level “does allow” lockdown easing... because the 5 tests allow it.
Interesting that Cabinet ministers were sent out at the weekend with the “we are transitioning to level 3” line, and PM at PMQs just acknowledges we are still at 4.
As I said yesterday, the centrality of the alert Level system seems to being downplayed now...
As I said yesterday, the centrality of the alert Level system seems to being downplayed now...
Will be interesting to see if another attempt to get CMOs to lower alert level is made before the wider easing for eg department stores, in a fortnight... or whether Alert Level system has been furloughed.
CMO confirms unanimous decision of the four nations chief medical officers, as reported yday was Covid Alert Level kept at a “clear 4” but trending downwards... “on the independent advice of the Joint Biosecurity Centre”... but was not what PM told MPs he hoped for a week ago...
CMO made point of saying only self-assessed 5 tests “linked to changes” to lockdown, not independently-assessed Covid Alert Level🤷🏽♂️
1&2. PM May: “Alert Level will tell us how tough we have to be in our social distancing measures–the lower the level fewer the measures”
3. Plan:
1&2. PM May: “Alert Level will tell us how tough we have to be in our social distancing measures–the lower the level fewer the measures”
3. Plan:
