Thread by @AMFChina

Is Hong Kong’s autonomy dead? Today the Centre for Geopolitics @CamGeopolitics published a conversation between @NotreDame's Victoria Tin-bor Hui, @jwassers Jeffrey Wasserstrom and me. What follows is my response to Victoria's conversation opener. 1/16

centreforgeopolitics.org/is-hong-kongs-…

I broadly agree with Victoria's bleak assessment of the current situation in Hong Kong.

Where I would slightly diverge is that in my view “One Country, Two Systems” (1C2S) already ended at around end of August 2019 2/16

vimeo.com/357072726

By then Hong Kong was governed by martial law in all but name and thus had firmly transitioned towards “One Country, One System” (1C1S). Hong Kong could soon become Xinjiang 2.0. 3/16

Let me also offer a couple of comments on the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) tactics deployed after the outbreak of the anti-extradition protests in 2019. 4/16

I would add that the one party-state has weaponized it’s increasingly militant form of nationalism against Hong Kongers. 5/16

foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/29/bei…

Soon after the popular uprising began Chinese state media portrayed Hong Kongers as undeserving and disloyal subjects. 6/16

theguardian.com/world/2019/aug…

China’s consul general in Brisbane, Australia, praised physical assaults by mainland Chinese overseas students on peaceful protesters at a pro-Hong Kong rally at University of Queensland. 7/16

globaltimes.cn/content/115921…

Dan Garrett has called the enemification of dissidents the key governance approach under Xi Jinping. 8/16

https://twitter.com/DanGarrett97/status/884065835446415361?s=20

Another feature of the CCP’s rule by fear in Hong Kong is political and psychological warfare waged by organs of the party-state. 9/16

China’s Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office (HKMAO) recently used genocidal language by referring to Hong Kong’s democracy movement as a ‘political virus’. The HKMAO also called for the elimination of so-called ‘poisonous’ and ‘violent’ protesters. 10/16

theguardian.com/world/2020/may…

Following most recent protests disproportionate numbers of children were arrested. This comes to show that what the CCP fears most is a new generation of Hong Kongers who no longer accept the party’s authority. 11/16

scmp.com/news/hong-kong…

We are thus witnessing a grave escalation of the conflict: An overbearing central government has sidelined the HKSAR government, marginalised the Legislative Council, and begun with a harsh crackdown on leading figures of the democracy movement. 12/16

It is no longer alarming to say that under the conditions of the National Security Law Hong Kong could soon become Xinjiang 2.0. 13/16

https://twitter.com/HongKongFP/status/1203597518996566016?s=20

And while Hong Kong’s leaderless/leaderful political movement has shown great courage and resilience in light of increasing suppression, it has also struggled to reach a consensus over its ultimate goal. 14/16

ispionline.it/en/publication…

Whereas in the past the five demands implicitly meant a defence of 1C2S, political activists will have to reassess their strategic options. 15/16

https://twitter.com/AMFChina/status/1266960217264336896?s=20

Will they now try to mould 1C1S in Hong Kong’s liberal democratic image or pursue Hong Kong Independence instead? Or will political activists vote with their feet and emigrate? /End