Thread by @TroyTeslike

@TSLAFanMtl 1/

Here is what I'm calculating based on data from my survey:

Q1 production: 2800 units (2,286 delivered in March, 514 delivered in April)

Q2 production so far: 1554 units
Current production rate: 900 units/week. The highest in Q1 was 1285/week. Currently, Tesla uses GA4 aka

@TSLAFanMtl 2/
the tent for Model Y. GA4 was built for Model 3 but they have been using it for Model Y since mid-March because the Model Y production line is not ready yet. At 100% capacity, GA4 can produce 2205 units per week. I expect production to increase from 900 to 2205 over time.

@TSLAFanMtl 3/
The dedicated Model Y assembly line is not online yet. The plan was that it would go online in early July. I don't know the latest on this.

As a side note, I'm calculating 18,122 Model Y backlog. This is just for North America. These are Model Y buyers who have placed an

@TSLAFanMtl 4/
order but don't have a delivery date yet. However, some of them have probably canceled their order and haven't updated their data. So, let's assume 12K pending orders. In order for Tesla to clear the backlog in 8 weeks, they would have to increase

@TSLAFanMtl 5/end

production to 12,000/8= 1,500 /week. This seems a bit optimistic but we will see.