Tesla Delivery Estimates: Data-driven & free. Early access on Patreon.
Apr 23, 2024 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
Tesla is not going to answer some of these questions but here is my take:
1/10
The hardware for the Optimus Robot is 20% ready and the software is 5% ready. The hardware will likely take 6-9 years and the software 5-10 years to complete. app.saytechnologies.com/tesla-2024-q1
2/10
4680 cell production at Giga Texas was operating at 6% capacity on March 20, 2024, when Tesla tweeted that they produce enough 4680 cells for 1,000 Cybertrucks per week. It took Tesla 3 years and 3 months to get to 6% capacity. The plan was to get to 100% in 1 year.
The Cybertruck battery is 122.4 kWh according to EPA documents. 1,000 Cybertrucks per week would require 122,400 kWh/week of batteries.
The design capacity of the 4680 production lines at Giga Texas is 100 GWh/year = 100 million kWh/year = 2 million kWh/week.
Therefore, they were at 122,400/2,000,000 = 6.1% capacity a month ago.
Mar 3, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Part 1/4
Tesla removed the parking sensors on Oct 1st, 2022 to save money and reduce complexity. The plan was to replace them with Tesla Vision which was not ready yet. 5 months later, the replacement is still not ready.
Parking sensors, also known as ultrasonic sensors or USS, use high-frequency sound waves that reflect back from nearby objects to measure the distance to those objects.
It's a great technology that's available as standard in most economy cars.
Mar 22, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
1/ Giga Berlin
Since we are so close to the delivery ceremony tomorrow, here is a summary of Giga Berlin.
The current building has one production line with 500,000 units per year of production capacity. In terms of the building size, this is Tesla's smallest car factory. 2/
The footprint of the Giga Berlin building is
• 77% the size of the Fremont Factory,
• 61% of Giga Texas, and
• 60% of Giga Shanghai
Giga Berlin will eventually produce its own 4680 cells & battery packs but for now, they are getting complete 2170 packs from Giga Shanghai
Mar 15, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This is interesting. Tesla Autopilot hardware version 4 might be coming soon. When it's released, I would expect all Tesla vehicle production worldwide to switch to HW4 around the same time once they use up existing stock.
There is a lot of misinformation about Giga Berlin's production capacity. It's not 2M/year or 1.5M/year or 1M/year. Giga Berlin has just a single production line with 500K/year capacity and there is neither any plan nor any space to add a second line.
2/
This line is similar to the Model Y line in Shanghai which produced 38,381 Model Y in Dec 2021 (460,572/year). That was the 12th month of Model Y production in Shanghai.
The Shanghai Model Y line could potentially reach 45K/month = 540K/year. Berlin Model Y should be similar
Jan 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Giga Berlin:
1/ The current building at Giga Berlin has just one production line and there is neither space nor any plan to add another line to this building. The line was modeled after Model Y line in Shanghai which produced 38,381 in Dec with 3 shifts. That's 460,572/year.
2/
• On the Alex Springer show, Elon said Giga Berlin's capacity is 500,000/year.
• At Giga Fest, Elon said 10,000/week (500K/year)
• A slide at Giga Fest also showed 500,000/year
Jul 3, 2020 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Tesla Q3 2020 Updates:
1/
• 7-9 July: Final registration numbers for Europe will be released
• 8-12 July: China production & delivery numbers will be released. I use these in my calculations
• 13-15 July: I'll post my first estimate for Q3 2020. It should be between 130-150K
2/
Things to watch out for in Q3 2020:
• Made-in-China Model 3 Long Range has a backlog, most likely over 10K
• Tesla was using the Model 3 GA4 general assembly line for Model Y production. The new Model Y GA5 at Fremont is expected to go online soon.
Here is what I'm calculating based on data from my survey:
Q1 production: 2800 units (2,286 delivered in March, 514 delivered in April)
Q2 production so far: 1554 units
Current production rate: 900 units/week. The highest in Q1 was 1285/week. Currently, Tesla uses GA4 aka
@TSLAFanMtl 2/
the tent for Model Y. GA4 was built for Model 3 but they have been using it for Model Y since mid-March because the Model Y production line is not ready yet. At 100% capacity, GA4 can produce 2205 units per week. I expect production to increase from 900 to 2205 over time.
