We have lowered our projections 15% from its peak 2 weeks ago due to recent positive data showing a continued steep decrease in infections and deaths in many states.
Furthermore, states that have reopened have reopened slowly, reducing the likelihood of an immediate second wave.
Furthermore, states that have reopened have reopened slowly, reducing the likelihood of an immediate second wave.
The above graph shows all states with >5% YOY diners on May 10. All 8 states still have <50% YOY diners a month after the reopening.
Of course, there are capacity limits in place, but the effect is likely minimal since most restaurants are not constantly at full capacity.
Of course, there are capacity limits in place, but the effect is likely minimal since most restaurants are not constantly at full capacity.
I also think many of the deaths reported in early May were April deaths that were backlogged/retroactively added, hence skewing the data.
As a corollary, we have lowered the IFR for the US from a constant 1% to 0.75%. This is to reflect improving treatments and age distribution.
As a corollary, we have lowered the IFR for the US from a constant 1% to 0.75%. This is to reflect improving treatments and age distribution.
Our current best estimate is that deaths will plateau by late June, at around 800 deaths per day.
However, this is still a fluid situation, especially given recent events. So the projections may further decrease or increase based on new data.
But at all times, I will try to encapsulate the uncertainty with the confidence intervals and be transparent about the limitations.
But at all times, I will try to encapsulate the uncertainty with the confidence intervals and be transparent about the limitations.
