Let's go over the actual mechanics and votes with passing a Hong Kong immigration bill rather than the fatalism cliched non-sense you hear from DC tankies and journos. 1. Pompeo saying State and admin was studying the issue was a subtle green light. That wouldn't have 1/n
Happened publicly without at least some buy in. 2. Let's take as given Dems would support almost any bill here if it goes to a vote. 3. That means the real votes you need to count are GOP. 4. But wait there's more, because the GOP controls the Senate that means it needs 2/n
to survive committee and get calendared. That's a little more dicey because GOP on immigration committees typically aren't welcoming people. 5. Question then becomes can it survive committee and get calendared for a vote? I would suspect there a relatively good possibility 3/n
It can and here is why. First, in committee only one GOP member needs to note vote with the party. In other words, you're not talking moving the party only a small number of members. Second, White House and Congress (both sides) currently reviewing numerous potential 4/n
Measures on punishing China over Hong Kong. This is absolutely being discussed throughout DC China policy makers from aides to White House. With UK moving and any other moves they might make, increasingly hard to omit any type of refugee visa. Third, we have already seen 5/n
Movement on related issues. For instance, previous HK legislation blocked denial based upon arrests. Cotton/Blackburn legislation that headline stopped Chinese student visas also had provision for Uyghur refugee visas (I covered this in a previous thread). There is clear 6/n
About the importance of this issue and good chance (I'd peg above 50% say 65%) that some material change to giving HKers visas ultimately happens as part of a package of measures over Hong Kong. Definitely not done or guaranteed but distinct possibility especially with UK action.
