A lot of excited people claiming that Boris Johnson followed Herd immunity for “the cull”.
This is incorrect.
Boris chose “Herd immunity” simply because he believed it gained UK economic advantage - when EU threatened that economic advantage Boris did a u-turn.
A thread.
👇👇👇
This is incorrect.
Boris chose “Herd immunity” simply because he believed it gained UK economic advantage - when EU threatened that economic advantage Boris did a u-turn.
A thread.
👇👇👇
2/
It’s hard for people now to appreciate how uncontroversial herd immunity was in March - even Italy only recorded a total of 100 deaths by 1st week of March.
At least one national newspaper didn’t just think herd immunity was a decent choice - it assumed it was only choice.
It’s hard for people now to appreciate how uncontroversial herd immunity was in March - even Italy only recorded a total of 100 deaths by 1st week of March.
At least one national newspaper didn’t just think herd immunity was a decent choice - it assumed it was only choice.
3/
UK has yearly exp of flu outbreak & was worried NHS cd be overloaded hence dumping of older patients in care homes.
There was no evil thought out plan - it was a flu plan for a deadly pandemic.
The plan was to ride it out & maintain London as Europe’s premier business hub..
UK has yearly exp of flu outbreak & was worried NHS cd be overloaded hence dumping of older patients in care homes.
There was no evil thought out plan - it was a flu plan for a deadly pandemic.
The plan was to ride it out & maintain London as Europe’s premier business hub..
4/
Now stereotypes kicked in - “overcautious Europeans” would take huge hit protecting everyone - while stoic Brits would “take it on the chin” & remain open for business - come the summer the virus would be fading & recession hit EU desperate for a deal to export to UK again..
Now stereotypes kicked in - “overcautious Europeans” would take huge hit protecting everyone - while stoic Brits would “take it on the chin” & remain open for business - come the summer the virus would be fading & recession hit EU desperate for a deal to export to UK again..
5/
1st UK Covid death - a pensioner - wasn’t till 5th of March.
Boris now confident NHS could cope & with guidelines ready to isolate (economically inactive) pensioners - who unlike many EU countries lived away from families - Boris increasingly confident he could “win Corona”.
1st UK Covid death - a pensioner - wasn’t till 5th of March.
Boris now confident NHS could cope & with guidelines ready to isolate (economically inactive) pensioners - who unlike many EU countries lived away from families - Boris increasingly confident he could “win Corona”.
6/
The key time: 7-20 March. UK govt “advised” changed behaviour in this period nowhere near a lockdown.
An evermore bullish Boris openly boasted of UKs success in talks with atleast 2 EU leaders - the French govt alarmed at the risk this posed undertook extraordinary action..
The key time: 7-20 March. UK govt “advised” changed behaviour in this period nowhere near a lockdown.
An evermore bullish Boris openly boasted of UKs success in talks with atleast 2 EU leaders - the French govt alarmed at the risk this posed undertook extraordinary action..
7/
Then on early Friday morning 20th March the French govt did something unprecedented:
Macron phoned Johnson with ultimatum:
France & then whole of the EU would isolate UK under war like siege conditions if the UK did not lockdown.
Johnson was given 24 hours to decide.
Then on early Friday morning 20th March the French govt did something unprecedented:
Macron phoned Johnson with ultimatum:
France & then whole of the EU would isolate UK under war like siege conditions if the UK did not lockdown.
Johnson was given 24 hours to decide.
8/
Boris asked for delay to give UK govt more time to consider/put a plan in place.
But once Johnson realised his economic gamble would be crushed - he was faced with choice:
1. economic chaos with high number of deaths
2. economic chaos with less deaths
- he chose the latter.
Boris asked for delay to give UK govt more time to consider/put a plan in place.
But once Johnson realised his economic gamble would be crushed - he was faced with choice:
1. economic chaos with high number of deaths
2. economic chaos with less deaths
- he chose the latter.
9/
On 23rd March Boris announced 3 week lockdown (later to be extended) the minimum the French would accept.
The entire Coronavirus strategy thus completely turned 180degrees.
On 23rd March Boris announced 3 week lockdown (later to be extended) the minimum the French would accept.
The entire Coronavirus strategy thus completely turned 180degrees.
9/
The timing also explains 1 of the weirdest Corona episodes.
Why Boris - a notorious lazy PM - so lammed govt when he was ill.
It wasn’t that ministers were missing his work - it was all cabinet knew Boris had - until just days previously been a huge anti lockdown advocate.
The timing also explains 1 of the weirdest Corona episodes.
Why Boris - a notorious lazy PM - so lammed govt when he was ill.
It wasn’t that ministers were missing his work - it was all cabinet knew Boris had - until just days previously been a huge anti lockdown advocate.
10/
The tragedy of Boris plan is by trying to game COVID, he essentially “won” an extra 2 weeks of no lockdown at a higher economic price as UK now taking longer to eliminate the virus than other EU countries.
The death toll is higher & UK may face a 2nd wave before rest EU.
The tragedy of Boris plan is by trying to game COVID, he essentially “won” an extra 2 weeks of no lockdown at a higher economic price as UK now taking longer to eliminate the virus than other EU countries.
The death toll is higher & UK may face a 2nd wave before rest EU.
