Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture
Anglo-European. Optimistic Arsenal fan, Agatha Christie head & whisky drinker. Purveyor of general englishness from a time before world lost its marbles
LittleGravitas 🇪🇺 💙 #FBPE, #FBPA, #FBPR Profile picture Chris🌟 #FBPPR #RejoinEU #FBPE #FBPPR💙 Profile picture 🇬🇧DR.Renton🐸🇺🇸⭐⭐⭐PM-Elect✝️🇧🇷🇮🇹⌛️🥓🤣🐶 Profile picture Roger Boaden 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇬🇧🇪🇺 #IAmEuropean Profile picture ozidug 💙🇦🇺🇪🇺🇬🇧🇮🇪 Profile picture 28 added to My Authors
5 May
18 months ago I wrote a thread on “the inconvenient truth” of the election.

▶️ That age is now the determinant factor in British politics.

Northerners & the “left behinds”contrary to the media myth, didn’t vote for Brexit - home owning older voters did.

2/

So many people who fell for the “northerners voted Brexit” myth are now confused as to why these supposed “left behinds” vote Tory.

But it’s only once you deconstruct this myth can you see what’s really happening.

This also explains why London....

3/

Many London remainers even themselves but into the myth that the capital is thus (say it quietly) morally better: we at least voted remain & don’t vote Tory - but this is part of the same myth..

..and here why.
Read 8 tweets
4 May
Since Hartlepool constituency was founded in 1974 the combined votes of:

The Conservatives
UKIP/Brexit
& far right parties

...has ALWAYS been higher than 33% at election time.

The only exceptions were 1997, 2001 & 2005...

...when Tony Blair was leader of the Labour Party.
2/

Indeed for half the elections since 1974, the right + far right in Hartlepool got 40-60% of the vote.

The idea that Labour is suddenly struggling here because “it’s moved away from the left” or because “the red-wall has suddenly fallen for the right” simply doesn’t hold up.
3/

The idea that places like Hartlepool are moving away from Labour because “it’s not left wing enough”...

...is ahistorical nonsense promoted by people who are trying to shoehorn in a narrative that simply isn’t true and/or don’t know the area.
Read 9 tweets
2 May
+UPDATE+

Rumours circulating there may be more to UK & Norway’s failure to reach a deal than at 1st seems.

Original reporting stressed misunderstanding...

...it now looks like UK govt tried to force Norway to renegotiate Pre 1970s access - legal action cannot be ruled out now.
2/

From reports doing the rounds it seems UK overestimated Norway’s readiness to stick with PRE-EU fishing agreements.

IOW:
UK was geared for discussion on “status quo plus” - while Norway felt no legal obligation to even respect the existing status quo with post Brexit UK.
3/

Problem for UK negotiators is that Norway’s
1. Very rich
2. Part of the EEA
3. Fishing lobby is strong

Given this it’s unclear what UK could offer 🇳🇴.

In effect 🇳🇴 could simply tell 🇬🇧 “If you don’t like it - take us to court”.
Read 5 tweets
29 Apr
I’ve stopped making fun of those English immigrants in Spain who live in an old fashioned British time bubble in english pubs with English TV, because in a weird way...

...as a liberal & remainer I’m actually becoming...like them.

- A small thread on a strange phenomenon -
2/

We’re familiar with that immigrant cliche. The, for example, Turk who moves to Germany becomes more & more German and yet retains, cherishes a Turkish idea of himself & the land of his youth even as Turkey becomes modern...& then when returning “home” doesn’t recognize it..
3/

I’ve noticed a strange thing happening with me & Britain.
I’m British. I’m English.
I never even bothered to think about.

But the referendum.
& more importantly the post brexit tragedy following it, didn’t challenge my European identity - it, for the 1st time, confirmed it.
Read 7 tweets
28 Apr
+UPDATE+

"Boris Johnson will himself judge if he broke any rules over Downing Street flat refurbishment"

A committee will be set up to look into the matter, but it is understood Boris Johnson to make final decision on his behaviour.
2/

Number of newspapers and media sources now reporting this.

mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
3/

Boris Johnson has appointed Lord Christopher Geidt to head the committee. Lord Geidt has been a member of the Royal Household and in intelligence Service for much of his career.
Read 5 tweets
28 Apr
I’m always intrigued when British people who are (supposedly) self-declared friends of Ireland call for #Irexit.

- A short thread on what would immediately happen -
2/

#Irexit would have all the problems of Brexit multiplied because of its smaller size, but that isn’t even the worst of it.

The worst thing would be everyone would assume Ireland would leave the EURO. Because how & why would you stay inside EURO but outside the EU?

& then..
3/

So if everyone assumes Ireland would leave the EURO why would anyone keep any savings or cash in Irish banks?

To protect the EURO value of your savings you would simply transfer these to other EU state accounts before your money was converted into as yet unknown currency.
Read 10 tweets
28 Apr
What could possibly explain this strange phenomenon?
2/

..& to the dullards who are saying this will be a boom for English workers. Think actually think about what you are suggesting.

You want Brexit to be a tool whereby we lose a particular cohort of young foreigners from doing modestly paid work and replace them with Brits....
3/

..but the foreigners U.K. govt’s welcomes is for higher paid work.

In other words the role of Brexit is to create incentives for Brits to take lower skilled lower pay work...and foreigners to take higher paid work.

What sort of a country thinks this is good idea?
Read 5 tweets
27 Apr
-UPDATE+

Media sources:
Boris Johnson made comments on his preference for "bodies piled high" rather than a lockdown on several occasions.
2/

This suggests that these comments, rather than being an isolated one-off emotional outburst, actually represented Boris Johnson's thinking.
3/

The leaks on Boris Johnson's comments are thus not intended so much to damage Johnson as to put the record straight.

Ministers leaked lockdown policy in order to constrain Johnson who resisted to the very last moment.
Read 4 tweets
25 Apr
+UPDATE+

The former communist regions of eastern Germany are poised to overtake the economies of the majority of British regions.

While UK economy is generally only about 10% behind that of Germany in overall per capita GDP - something strange is happening below the surface...
2/

UK GDP looks good as an average - but figures are skewed by the powerful London & South East that together have a per capita GDP of € 50 000.

This is higher than 🇩🇪 national average. And as its where vast majority of opinion formers are based influences UK self-perception.
3/

However beyond London + South East, we start to see the UK is so unequal many of its regions are fast being caught up by the poorer ex communist areas.

Already in 2018 Sachsen overtook not only the structutally weak N. East & N Ireland...but Wales, Yourshire & East Midlands.
Read 9 tweets
25 Apr
I see many confused why anti COVID restrictions protestors wear yellow stars.

It’s not because “they don’t understand” - it’s because they believe any slight inconvenience to their freedom - even if it protects thousands of lives - is worse than the death of 6 million people.
People need to understand why this is happening. There’s always been a type (usually a tiny minority of loner men) in society.

This isn’t like in the past.
The yellow colour isn’t by coincidence.
It’s full blown media mainstreamed narcissism.

3/

It’s also wrong to say it’s “Holocaust denial” or “misrepresents the Holocaust”.
Their point is not that the Holocaust didn’t happen..

..their point is “my absolute freedom is more important than 6 million deaths”.

It isn’t “stupidity” - it’s all chosen quite deliberately.
Read 6 tweets
24 Apr
+UPDATE+

Boris Johnson’s “Scotland policy” hit by UK govt infighting.

Little remarked upon further fallout of the internecine war engulfing Downing St is Johnson’s Union strategy.

In February when the “Union Unit” lost 2 leaders inside 3 weeks: Luke Graham, then Oliver Lewis..
2/

The chaotic “Union Unit” was effectively replaced as a political power by the creation of a special cabinet committee.
However as members were ministers, this invested power in the go-between who was chosen to steer this....who was none other than...

theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
3/

The aide chosen to help out on the “Scotland strategy” was none other than Carrie Symond’s “party pal” - Henry Newman. The only non govt minister (or even MP) involved with the Union committee.

So Johnson looks like losing a 3rd leading Union head inside 2 months.
Read 6 tweets
23 Apr
As I keep saying..

It’s psychologically difficult for many to admit that Johnson is a useless charlatan...as admitting this would call into question Brexit.

So in a way an incompetent corrupt Johnson is a better guarantor of votes than any smart relatively clean Tory successor.
2/

It’s “psychological complicity” - and as in so many things in life leads to strange irrational outcomes.

Thus we’ve now reached a stage that Johnson could effectively do anything.
Because people’s belief that their single vote for Brexit was the right choice...must be saved.
3/

It’s why Brexit & Boris inextricably linked.

As its almost impossible to cognitively reject Brexit without first rejecting Boris Johnson.
(Altho the opposite is possible)

So the real battle is not Brexit, but 1st Boris Johnson.
People get this even if they don’t express it.
Read 5 tweets
21 Apr
“Jane Austen’s teapot”

or

Why the row about the @nationaltrust & “woke” is absurd.

The Georgians were not only consumed with woke subjects - they pioneered boycotts, woke slogans & even woke merchandise.

“Being woke” is nothing new.
It’s English history.

- a thread -
2/

From the mid 1760s on, that epitome of refined old world English conservative style Wedgwood started producing teapots.
But not just any old teapots.

But “Woke teapots”.

Teapots that would show you cared about the ills of the world & the suffering of those less fortunate.
3/

These “Georgian woke teapots” were chosen for an explicit reason.

Tea was a refined social event.
An event that women - who were deemed naturally more sympathetic - had some power.
Women - refined women - could show their commitment to ending suffering.

It was political.
Read 8 tweets
20 Apr
+UPDATE+

Chelsea to "withdraw support from proposed European Super League".
2/

Chelsea looking like the 1st to crack.
3/

"Chelsea have decided to begin the process of pulling out of the proposed European Super League".
Read 11 tweets
20 Apr
The premier league is a big money earner for the UK.
Huge TV money comes to UK and filters into local economy - not via profits as most clubs don’t make any - but via players, staff spending their salaries locally.

A franchise model would allow clubs to move elsewhere.
2/

What many fail to realise:
Most Premier league clubs never make a profit so the money they earn is “sticky” - it leaks out to players, staff, agents etc most of whom are resident in UK.

So for UK economy having foreign owners of non profitable clubs has been a huge benefit.
3/

But in a franchise system foreign owner could have huge incentive to take their clubs where the money is...rather than being the money to where the club happened to be when they bought them.
Read 5 tweets
19 Apr
One thing that's been little remarked upon about the Super League idea is that by removing the direct link to European national leagues...

...is that it opens up the League to "inviting" Guangzhou Evergrande from China or LA Galaxy to join.

This is what will happen...
2/

Up till now the anger about the Super league is it destroys the national league system.

But ultimately the important thing is that a Super League system exists "outside of geography".

Thus if Saudi Arabia wants to drop the League $500million so its team can join..it could.
3/

...And there's more...using the US system...simply moving whole clubs could then come into play.

"Liverpool" could for example decide to play half or even all their games in Qatar or Shanghai.

In a Super League who or what is to stop them?
Read 6 tweets
18 Apr
The debate on Scottish independence focuses (logically & obviously) on the immediate cost to Scotland or the psychological blow it delivers to the idea of the UK.

But there’s another way of looking at it.

- thread -
2/

It’s 2022 and 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 has voted for independence what’s the immediate aim of 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 & 🇪🇺?

If you think about it all 3 - even if for differing reasons - would have an interest in as little economic dislocation as possible.
3/

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Clearly wouldn’t want to start in Indy with chaos
🇪🇺 Wouldn’t want to look like it was causing problems for a proEU potential member
🇬🇧 Motivation is more complex but rationally 🇬🇧 facing slow loss of NI & now 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 wouldn’t want to see its internal mkt shrinking even further
Read 9 tweets
16 Apr
If Brexit is the "Will of the People" based on the 2019 election which was explicitly fought & won on Boris Johnson's "oven ready deal" in order to bring the Brexit referndum to fruition...

...then this means the Northen Irish Protocol must be the "Will of the People", too.
The next paradox:

The UK government has spent the last 4 years seemingly putting a US trade deal ahead of Northern Ireland...

...now finds it faces a US govt that puts Northern Ireland, and the Northen Irish Protocol, ahead of a trade deal with the UK.
Which leads to the next paradox...

Brexit, that was sold on the ability to do trade deals with the US & non-Europen countries....

...now depends on breaking the very deal that was sold as delivering Brexit & safeguarding the union in order to do those deals.
Read 4 tweets
16 Apr
There are still a few remainers who think a “purist rejoin” party can be a “reverse UKIP” and move & accelerate Britain towards Rejoin.

There are many, many reasons why this won’t work.

The main one being this...
2/

UKIP drew many voters from traditional Labour, far right & non voters. So the supposed UKIP threat to the Tories was much less than many supposed. At worst it was ambiguous.

But which voters would a purist rejoin party drew from..?
3/

A purist rejoin party is clearly going to draw more younger voters from Labour/LibDems and in likely more prosperous urban areas.

These areas have often been turning away from Conservatives in last decade.
This would split the non Tory vote in crucial seats.
Read 5 tweets
15 Apr
Even today they’re are lots of people utterly convinced the entire Conservative party is engaged in some huge Brexit conspiracy.

The truth is actually in a way worse but....for many people disappointing.

Vast majority of Tory MPs fall into 2 camps....
1. MPs who’ve been around the block & realize brexit is a rapidly accelerating faulty answer to the wrong question but can’t say much or they’ll be destroyed & simply replaced by someone worse

2. Ex provincial town councillors who wouldn’t know a hedge fund from a hedge trimmer
3/

We’re in a car that’s driven off the edge. We’ll have some damage but no one knows how bad. So we wave flags & sing so not to alarm the kids.

Once again do you really expect these people to have worked out the trade & security implications of Brexit:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Ander…
Read 5 tweets
15 Apr
The real issue for the UK - which UK media are awkwardly & deeply conflicted over is this:

As the post Trump US & EU are attempting to rebuild & recast the western democratic alliance..

..is the UK fully signed up to this...or is it holding out for a return of Trump & Trumpism?
2/

On every level from Climate change to tax haven policy, China & Russia only by US & Europe working together can real progress be made.

There is no other option.
But for UK to be fully signed on to this requires it be fully supportive of the EUs survival, influence & success.
3/

Much as Brits might demur: the UK during the Johnson premiership was effectively in a coalition with Trump & to a certain extent Russia.

It’s now gone to actively seeking to replace the EU to..well its unclear.
Read 8 tweets