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HUGE NEWS

Comprehensive investigation by @MelissaLDavey on Surgisphere and That Hydroxychloroquine Study

Bottom line? Flawed data and "almost certainly a scam" amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun…
theguardian.com/world/2020/jun…
Worth noting that while this is an astonishing story of scientific misconduct, the best evidence we have excluding this study still suggests that hydroxychloroquine doesn't work for COVID-19
We still need bigger RCTs to be sure, but if you go by current best evidence it's quite likely that HCQ has either minimal or no benefit
And for those politicizing a drug, all I can say is that it's very silly and you should stop it
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Health "Physical Isolation" Nerd
@GidMK
So, @TheLancet and @NEJM have retracted the Surgisphere studies

This is not a surprise

However, some really important questions remain
Firstly, the ethical quagmire

How in the world did either of these journals allow a paper to be published that loudly proclaimed that there was no ethical oversight?
This is a FUNDAMENTAL issue for bioethics - researchers are not and should not be in charge of deciding whether their research is ethical
Read 5 tweets
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Health "Physical Isolation" Nerd
@GidMK
More estimates of the IFR of COVID-19 out recently

Might start a thread collating the new ones I see
1 - NYC

We already had the basic data, but the testing implies 22.7% infected from tests between 19/04-28/04. Taking the 28/04 date to crudely account for right-censoring, this gives an IFR:

17682/1906573 = ~0.92%
Study is here: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

IFR for the whole state is a bit lower - using the same date cutoff, it is ~0.84% with 14% infected
Read 10 tweets
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Health "Physical Isolation" Nerd
@GidMK
Lots of people are still comparing the COVID-19 death rate with influenza ("it's only as deadly as the flu!")

This is very misleading

If you compare apples to apples, COVID-19 is MUCH deadlier than the flu
The figure that most people use when talking about the death rate of influenza is 0.1-0.2% (i.e. 1 to 2 deaths per 1,000 cases of flu)

They then say that the lower estimates of COVID-19 fatality rate are similar, so it's comparable

But they really aren't
The 0.1-0.2% figure for influenza is one estimate of the CASE fatality rate - i.e. the number of deaths divided by confirmed cases

The CFR for influenza varies significantly, but is around 1-40 deaths per 1,000 people infected (0.1-4%)
Read 14 tweets

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