Ahead of Saturday’s talks between India and China at Lt Gen level (to take place on the Chinese side) at Chushul, some updates on the situation in Ladakh. At Galwan (around the area of Patrol Point 14), troops from both sides are at least a km apart at the closest point
Troops from either side are within their own areas. Small patrols have been meeting in the area near PP 14 for discussions since May 20-21st. The larger body of troops on both sides of the LAC are much in depth—at locations 2-3 km away from the LAC.
The Chinese buildup in Galwan, a first in many many years and diverted from an ongoing exercise in Tibet, was well coordinated with additional strength brought in in the Finger area on the Northern bank of the Pangang Tso. India, watching the movement, took appropriate steps
The Chinese brought in a battalion plus (about 1000 plus men) to the areas opposite Galwan and about 200-300 soldiers in the finger area, post May 5-6. An unusal aspect to this deployment: Galwan and around was never a contested area, so clearly it was a pure pressure tactic.
As the Chinese started deploying in Galwan, India too matched the strength, moving a battalion from the nearby DBO brigade closer to the LAC. Both sides maintained social distancing so to speak, meeting only at Patrol Point 14 to exchange comminucation.
The main Chinese aim here was to stop construction of the feeder road ( well within Indian territiry) joining PP 14 to the DS-DBO Road completed last year. India immediately dismissed the objection and has continued with with its plan to complete this road.
In Finger area (for a detailed brief on what, why and how of the dispute, watch this: stratnewsglobal.com/pangong-tso-fa…), China wanted to assert its claim to the area between Finger 5 and 8, which India hotly disputes. A faceoff was imminent. And that’s exactly what has happened at Finger.
Earlier, small Patrols from both sides used to come face to face in this area but disengagement was also quick. This time, more troops have been deployed from either side, with neither willing to budge. Saturday’s talks are aimed at resolving this knotty issue.
The Indian assessment is that eventually troops from Galwan will go back sooner than later (in any case, they have neither crossed the LAC nor created any ruckus) since gradual thinning out of troops on the Chinese side appears to have begun there. Talks will not include Galwan
The current complication is at the Finger area. But a combination of military and diplomatic efforts are eventually likely to succeed in restoring the status quo at Finger in coming weeks, those in the know say much like what happened in 2013 (Depsang) and 2014 (at Chumur).
Final thoughts: Chinese aim to change status quo through coercion has not borne fruit. after initial belligerence, it has realised India is not budging so it has—unlike in Dolam 2017–dialled down the rhetoric & said that situation on border with India ‘stable and controllable’
