If you poke around here you'll find quite a few states where different COVID metrics (cases, share of % tests, deaths, hospitalizations) point in different directions and/or the number of tests is fluctuating and it's not entirely obvious what's happening. public.tableau.com/profile/peter.…
If you carefully investigated each state, you could probably formulate a well-informed opinion as to what was really happening. And there are some states (e.g. NY) where all metrics are clearly getting better and a few (e.g. AZ) where they're all getting worse
But be wary of quick-and-dirty takes that don't look at the data as a whole. A lot of them are not very robust and, of course, people tend to construe the data in a way that matches their priors.
To add to the complication, it's possible hospitalizations & death rates will be lower than before if new cases are primarily among younger people who are quicker to resume social activity. So it's plausible infections are growing but that deaths are declining in some states.
