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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today: 995
Yesterday: 1,192
One week ago (5/27): 1,333

Newly reported cases
T: 20K
Y: 24K
5/27: 19K

Newly reported tests
T: 457K
Y: 417K
5/27: 292K

Positive test rate
T: 4%
Y: 6%
5/27: 7%
So... a positive milestone. This is the first time we've been under 1,000 deaths (albeit just barely: 995) on a day that didn't follow a weekend or holiday since April 1. Wednesdays have generally been pretty bad days, in fact. So that's good news.
But while deaths have been falling, what's happening to cases is more ambiguous. My guess is we have maybe 20 states where the situation is clearly getting better, 3-5 where it's getting worse, and another ~25 where it depends on how you construe the data.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today: 909
Yesterday: 995
One week ago (5/28): 1,279

Newly reported cases
T: 21K
Y: 20K
5/28: 22K

Newly reported tests
T: 466K
Y: 457K
5/28: 408K

Positive test rate
T: 4%
Y: 4%
5/28: 6%
Folks, this is a pretty good report. Midweek days (Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays) typically feature high death counts. But we've now had two days in a row with deaths < 1,000.

Also 3 out of 4 days with a positive test rate <5%.
The usual caveats apply, though. There's a LOT of state to state variation, with clearer declines in the Northeast and the Midwest than in the South and the West. And these numbers are backward looking. We don't yet know much about the impact of Memorial Day, protests, etc.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If you poke around here you'll find quite a few states where different COVID metrics (cases, share of % tests, deaths, hospitalizations) point in different directions and/or the number of tests is fluctuating and it's not entirely obvious what's happening. public.tableau.com/profile/peter.…
If you carefully investigated each state, you could probably formulate a well-informed opinion as to what was really happening. And there are some states (e.g. NY) where all metrics are clearly getting better and a few (e.g. AZ) where they're all getting worse
But be wary of quick-and-dirty takes that don't look at the data as a whole. A lot of them are not very robust and, of course, people tend to construe the data in a way that matches their priors.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I know this seems like a super obvious point, but when assessing how voters evaluate Trump and where his approval ratings might go, it's perhaps important to note that both COVID and the protests involve profound disruptions to everyday life in a way that say impeachment didn't.
The protests perhaps slightly less so if you're not living in a major city, although there are also a lot of protests in smaller cities. But the images on TV will instantly remind Americans everywhere that "this is not normal".
But there are a lot of voters who, in ordinary times, are softly pro-Trump. They may not like his conduct. But they think "politics is silly", "both sides are so partisan", "this stuff is overblown". LOTS of people in this bucket and they are underrepresented on social media.
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