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Just caught up with this @Nightingale_P critique of the Industrial Strategy
researchresearch.com/news/article/?…
Particularly like: "Products, services and processes are commercialised in firms, not universities, and only a small proportion of innovation links back to basic research"
yes, as it happens, I *am* rereading the Internet from 2017 onward, I have this horrible feeling that I missed bits of it
This whole bit is worth showing, just marvellous, it destroys bundles of pious certainties. No, we are fine at long term capital. We need more *impatient* capital. Stop obsessing on start ups.
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Giles Wilkes
@Gilesyb
Thread: less than a month since the Chancellor announced the creation of the Bounce Back Loan: cash from a bank up to £50k (capped at 25% of turnover), but with a 100% GOVERNMENT GUARANTEE.

Since then **£14bn** have been issued in just three weeks. Let's put that in context 1/
First compare to the normal flow: in all of 2018, according to @UKFtweets, there was £28bn of new lending to ALL SMEs - including the many that are far bigger to be serious users of the BBL 2/
Second, the stock: the total amount of lending to SMEs in 2018 was around £100bn (excl real estate). If you go back further to more detailed data from the old BBA bba.org.uk/news/statistic…
you find <40% of lending is to "small", which is <£1m turnover companies 3/
Read 9 tweets
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Giles Wilkes
@Gilesyb
So my @instituteforgov report into Bailing out Coronavirus Britain is out. Here it is, and I can confidently say it is the hardest thing I have ever written - this is a fast moving area, full of grisly dilemmas. Some quick highlights...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
First, the massive challenge is not just that ‘we are in a new world’. It is that we are *temporarily* in a new world. The emphasis on different policy virtues is going to shift with time (see table, forgive typo)
Second: massive uncertainty. The policies you want for a brief, sharp shutdown (like, say, after a volcano) are very different to a 6 month hibernation, one year recession. And look how fast forecasts have shifted
Read 13 tweets
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Giles Wilkes
@Gilesyb
I'm late to the realization of how influential Tetock is to No10's thinking, and this result that well-briefed dilettantes reliably match subject matter experts in prediction games. The reason we don't follow this through and just have well briefed spads is social norms...
"When people imagined a policy failure, they attached greater responsibility to officials who failed to consult the right experts".

The word "ritualistically" is later attached to such consultation. It's like asking witch doctors...
With this mindset, imagine how easy it is to ignore trade experts when discussing Brexit, or favour occasional commenters over economic geographers when it comes to Levelling Up
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