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Some media reports are giving the impression that things are getting worse or at least not getting better.

In fact, today we have seen ...
1. Covid-19 deaths down: 7-day ave reported UK total; 5-day reporting total for English hospital deaths by day-of-occurrence lowest since March.

2. Covid-19 new cases down: 7-day ave UK P1+P2 cases & 7-day ave English P1-cases by specimen date both lowest since March.
3. Covid-19 hospital admissions down: 7-day average for England lowest since March.

4. Total Covid-19 patients in hospital down: UK number lowest since March.
All of these measures are trending down long term, in some cases quite rapidly.

We would all like to see them coming down even faster but it’s important also to recognise the progress we are making.
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More from @cricketwyvern see all

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David Paton
@cricketwyvern
We know the UK peak of deaths was on 8 April but when was the peak of infections?

@calneeagle and @AlistairHaimes have been analysing the various pieces of evidence: deaths, cases, 111 calls.

Based on these, it seems likely the infection peak was between 17th-19th March.
This means that infections started to come down just before pubs shut (20 March) & several days before full lockdown (23/24 March).
That tells us infections & deaths would have decreased even without lockdown.

It does *not* tell us whether or not lockdown helped cases/deaths to come down even faster.

Nor does it tell us whether or not locking down sooner would have caused the peak to be earlier.
Read 3 tweets
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David Paton
@cricketwyvern
Time to check in again to see how Germany are doing since easing lockdown on 19 April.

Remember easing has happened in stages & significant lags between infections & outcomes, esp. deaths. That said, given 5 weeks have elapsed, our Govt should now be able to draw some lessons.
First the Reproduction value, R. Here is the German newer, 7-day estimates (confidence intervals omitted) which goes up to 20 May. The point estimates suggest their aim of keeping this below 1 seems to have been achieved so far.
Next new cases, using 7-day average to smooth over weekend reporting. These have trended down continuously and now less than 20% of the pre-easing level.
Read 6 tweets
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David Paton
@cricketwyvern
Zero new Covid-19 cases reported over the last 6 days for 21 English local authorities.

Note 1. these are +ve Pillar 1 tests (no locations for Pillar 2); 2. possible cases yet to be reported for some of these dates.

With those caveats, here they are. Is your area on the list?
1Adur
2Broxbourne
3Chichester
4City of London
5East Hertfordshire
6Epsom and Ewell
7Harlow
8Havant
9Horsham
10Islington
11Malvern Hills
12North Kesteven
13Rochford
14South Hams (10 days with no new cases)
Read 4 tweets

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