This is an important paper that pours more cold water on the notion there's enough mild infection to generate significant population immunity thelancet.com/journals/lanmi… (I will do some explaining, I promise, but dinner is also ready and needs eating) 1/(eventually)n
OK digging in. First from this and much other work there is no evidence for a large amount of population immunity after the initial surge. At some point the snake oil folks going on about that oughta drift off and find something else to talk about. (I know, who am I kidding?) 2/n
The seroprevalence in returnees to HK from Hubei is reported as 4%. Bear in mind that those traveling from Hubei to HK are not a random sample of Wuhan, and Hubei is not the same thing as Wuhan 3/n
Taken together with evidence from other places that have suffered a much higher rate of infection, this indicates that we are still nowhere near ‘herd immunity’ anywhere.
I wish I could appear more optimistic. Reality has got in the way. 4/n
I wish I could appear more optimistic. Reality has got in the way. 4/n
