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Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
@ShaneGoldmacher
Jun 4, 2020 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
NEW: Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has endorsed the challenger to Rep. Eliot Engel, Jamaal Bowman

This was already a top targeted Democratic incumbent in a primary.
So far this week:

Mon: Another Engel challenger drops out and endorses Bowman
Tues: Engel's "If I Didn’t Have a Primary, I Wouldn’t Care"
Wed: AOC backs Bowman

#NY16
Also today, Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party launched a $500k independent expenditure for Bowman.

And Bowman raised more than $100k off the Engel comment yesterday.

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More from @ShaneGoldmacher

Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
Aug 20
NEW at NYT: The Democratic Party is facing a voter registration crisis in red, blue and battleground states alike — losing ground to the GOP everywhere.

My deep dive into the numbers and what it reveals about the party's brand.

Thread —>
nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…Image
30 states plus D.C. allow for partisan registration.

Between 2020 and 2024, Democrats lost 2.1 million voters in those states. GOP gained 2.4 million.

But those topline figures are just the start... nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…Image
By percentage, Democrats went from nearly an 11-point edge over GOP in 2020 to just over a 6-point edge in 2024.

Along the way, some states have flipped to GOP registration edge entirely.

Florida, of course.

But more big ones are likely coming...
nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/…
Read 9 tweets
Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
May 25
NEW at NYT: One of the clearest ways to see how Trump has transformed the political landscape is to look at what we're calling "triple trending" counties — those that have steadily marched in each party's direction in the Trump era.

The results are stark.

Thread... Image
Image
All told, Trump has improved every election in 1,433 of the nation's 3,100+ counties — even as he lost in 2020.

Democrats have expanded their vote share continuously in only 57 counties.

But the demographics are even more revealing...

Gift link:
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Of the 1,433 "triple trending" Trump counties, only 3 had a median household income above $100,000.

It was the opposite for Democrats: 18 of the 57 "triple trending" Democratic counties had a median household income above $100,000.

nytimes.com/interactive/20…Image
Image
Read 6 tweets
Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
Nov 15, 2022
NEW: The NRSC sent a fundraising email today signed by Herschel Walker in which it is actually keeping 99% of what’s raised, per fine print.

Walker gets a dime for every ten dollar donation.
Every political strategist will say that nothing is more valuable than candidate funds, which is what makes this split — from the party committee — particularly notable.
The head of the McConnell aligned GOP super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, accuses NRSC of trying "to steal from their candidates."
Read 6 tweets
Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
Nov 12, 2022
NEW: How the most improbable of midterms were won and lost.

Democrats defied gravity and political history. GOP squandered what McCarthy told me he saw as a "hinge" election and brewing "perfect storm."

Here is a taste of one scene to get you started —>
nytimes.com/2022/11/12/us/…
How bad was Joe Biden’s approval rating? An October poll of *Delaware* had him 11 points underwater in his home state.

Yet Democrats over-performed. Here is a key metric: Democrats carried those who “somewhat disapproved” of Biden, in a break from past: nytimes.com/2022/11/12/us/…
Another scene nytimes.com/2022/11/12/us/…
Read 4 tweets
Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
Sep 3, 2022
NEW: How the NRSC raised a record $181.5 million entering August — yet spent 95% of it.

My deep dive on Rick Scott’s big bet on digital gone bad w/ internal docs, new $$$ ties revealed and a texting scheme so deceptive that WinRed cracked down.

MORE —>
nytimes.com/2022/09/03/us/…
Let’s start with some numbers. The NRSC has spent $172.8 million as of 7/31 — tens of millions more than 2020 by this time even as it spent *less* on candidate ads.

Top Rs are asking: Where did the money go?
nytimes.com/2022/09/03/us/…
The answer, chiefly, was an enormous gamble on finding new digital donors.

It hasn’t paid off.

In last six months of $$ data, the NRSC in 2022 raised $15 million LESS than during the same six-month period in 2020.
nytimes.com/2022/09/03/us/…
Read 13 tweets
Shane Goldmacher Profile picture
Aug 15, 2022
NEWS: The NRSC is canceling some fall ad reservations in PA, AZ and WI — total so far north of $10 million — in a sign of financial troubles.

Cuts include more than $5 million just from the Philly market.

FIRST CUT —> nytimes.com/2022/08/15/us/…
The NRSC ad reservations are a moving target as of midday Monday.

BUT so far *all* reservations in Phoenix and Tucson cut after 9/30, per two media buying sources.

nytimes.com/2022/08/15/us/…
Some of the cuts are likely going to be re-reserved not from the NRSC's IE but attempting to save money through cheaper coordinated ad buy rates.
nytimes.com/2022/08/15/us/…
Read 5 tweets

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